What exactly is going on here?

There's a great expression that states "bull**it baffles brains".

I don't know why it's just come to mind, but I have been running through a few recent RNS releases from the CEO of a company called OptiBiotix, Stephen O'Hara.

I don't know where to start really, but let's revisit this RNS released at the end of November. It's their most recent Scientific and Commercial Update:-

http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Scientific-and-Commercial-Up/73014647

So it's blah, blah, blah.........

then we get this:-

"OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms. A number of these discussions have been ongoing for many months and have involved extensive due diligence of OptiBiotix's science, intellectual property, and the partners assessment of the scale of the market opportunity across international markets. These discussions include a number of leading industry corporate players who provide product development, manufacturing, distribution, and/or routes to global markets.

Whilst OptiBiotix cannot guarantee that all discussions will lead to commercial deals it wants to update shareholders on the ongoing commercial progress being made across all of its products and platforms."

Now that first sentence sounds great doesn't it? "OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms."

but the last paragraph tells you all. It doesn't have a single commercial deal secured at this stage.

Let's move on.

December 2016:-

http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Joint-Product-Agreement-with/73122363

Wow! A joint product agreement with a multi-national. Excellent. Is this one of the six possible deals they were referring to? Well to be honest, I haven't a clue. If it is then in actual fact it's not a commercial deal at all.

"The aim of the Agreement is to develop weight management products containing SlimBiome(R) technology in a range of foods and OTC products which, if successful, will be launched into the Asian market in the second half of 2017. "

They are just developing products with a partner.

What also confuses me is this.

They then say:-

"The Company requires its identity and commercial details to remain confidential and no further details can be disclosed at this time."

A bit weird when not long after Stephen O'Hara clearly stated in an interview that the company in question was a subsidiary of Tata. The bulletin boards had been awash with this information already. Eh?

Most recently we had this:-

http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Launch-of-products-at-Vitafo/73978952

In essence I think it says that they are attending a trade show with some of their new products. So that's still no commercial agreements then?

I love this bit:-

"This has paralleled discussions with manufacturers, formulators and distribution partners to develop a range of product formulations to meet different application needs in international markets. The overall aim of this work has been to increase industry awareness of LP(LDL) (R) to develop numerous opportunities with national and international partners who have rights to specific formulations and presentations in different territories. This could create the potential for revenue streams at multiple points in the value chain including sale of the strain as an ingredient by manufacturers and royalties from the sales of higher value white label formulations and branded products."

Wow! The potential for revenue streams. It doesn't get better than that. Sarcasm.

In summary, it appears to me that there isn't one commercial deal that has been landed or have I somehow missed the details somewhere?

It appears to me that the only current revenue generator is some newly formed dietary brand called "Go Figure" in which OptiBiotix are the majority stakeholders (64%).

Last reported revenues were a little over £80,000. If I was holding shares in this company, I'd be questioning when and from where are significant revenues going to be generated?

Despite frequent RNS releases, it doesn't appear that significant revenues are anywhere close yet. Let's not mention cashflow and profits.

I would be very surprised if the company doesn't have many future highly dilutive fundraisings. Hopefully they may prove me wrong.

Finally, does anybody remember "Coleman Balls", well how about this one, "OptiBollox".

Just a reminder that my blog consists of my personal thoughts only on various companies. I never issue buy or sell advice in shares. Please DYOR.

Disappointing year for Trakm8, but still confident going forward

It's been a disappointing year for Trakm8 where they have failed to meet ambitious growth targets.

It appears to me that Trakm8's management saw a massive market opportunity and have gone for it all guns blazing.

Let's not pretend that this wasn't and isn't risky. It is.

However, following the full year profit warning, John Watkins the CEO stumped up £50,000 to buy more shares at 76p.

A small fund raising quickly followed at 65p, and Watkins plus five other Directors purchased an even more substantial £811,000 in support. Institutional holders have been quick and keen to follow in the fund raise.

The Director's have a massive amount of "skin in the game" and I hope that this year proves a blip in what has been a terrific growth story to date.

I remain confident that this will be the case.

I just looked back to when I first bought my Trakm8 shares (see blog post below):-

hTTp://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/your-m8-my-m8-trackm8.html

A couple of interesting things to note.

1) Directors had just purchased a big wedge of shares between themselves showing massive confidence. Share price went on to 30 bag from that point.

2) It shows just how far the company has come since 2011 when revenues at that point were around £4m per annum.

One or two "gob shites" trying to say "I told you so" at the moment. Perhaps they'd have done better to alert investors to the 30 bagging potential in 2011.

As mentioned above, there can be no guarantees that management's strategy works longer term, but if they get this right then I still see £10-£20 on the cards with a medium/long term outlook. If nothing else you have to admire their full on commitment to making it work, they've certainly "put their money where their mouth is" and deserve continued success.

We'll see in due course.