Hello all. I'm back. Thought you might want to read an ADVFN post I made today on the SULA thread. In fact take a look at all of my posts on that thread if you've got a little time. You'll see the connection with recent blog posts:-
It's my reply to a poster called atlantic57.
"atlantic57 (post 3832) - "Michael mouse how were you able to predict the events that unfolded."
Bloody hell. Seriously? A gold prospector in Sierra Leone?
FFS.
If you've got a bit of fun money then you might get lucky. It does happen. 95% of the time though you're going to lose money on these punts.
I warned that a bunch of shysters were pumping it as if it was a sure thing. In fact at 5.4p originally. They then went for their usual trick of suggesting investors average down. See my previous posts.
Of course whilst I've been away, I've been reliably informed that the clown prince has been calling me all the names under the sun because I've basically exposed him for what he is. Really hit a nerve it appears. No good for his blood pressure or state of mind I'd say. I might add I haven't read or heard what he had to say so can't confirm this personally.
Btw after enjoying another lovely holiday, I'm back now just watching events unfold :). Great fun, and I'm not specifically talking about SULA either.
If you speculate on loss making companies with f**k all revenues, burning cash and on ludicrous market caps then 99% of the time you're going to come unstuck.
You're certainly never going to be able to retire early that's for sure. :) "
Thursday 13 July 2017
Tuesday 4 July 2017
Cash flow is king
A quick line in a follow up to my earlier piece entitled "shares to avoid at all costs":-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/shares-to-avoid-at-all-costs.html
I've been informed that Winnifrith has written a piece about Trakm8 where he says that the business is bad because:-
"It is bad becuase it just does not generate free cashflow."
and later
"The fact is that TrakMK8 is still not generating free cashflow and that makes the valuation absurd."
Trakm8's valuation is around £33m.
Let's address this issue.
Firstly, Trakm8 didn't generate Free Cash flow this year largely because of heavy investment and delayed contracts. However, let's see what happens next year and not forget that they had good cash generation in the prior year enabling them to pay a 2p dividend.
I'm not sure what Winnifrith's beef is with Trakm8, perhaps they refused to turn up at one of his silly insignificant investor shows? Who knows.
Anyway let's expose the duplicitous and hypocritical little berk for what he is.
A question for Winnifrith. What is the Free Cash Flow at these companies? OptiBiotix, Premaitha Health, Big Sofa Technologies and Concepta?
I'll save you some time. They are all cash guzzlers with sod all revenues on ludicrous market caps. Yet good honest Winnifrith is pumping these companies on behalf of his organ grinder Adam Reynolds for all his worth. Have you no shame Winnifrith?
OptiBiotix (Opti) - Cash guzzler, revenues £288,000, market cap. £53m
Premiatha (Nipt) - Cash guzzler, revenues £3.1m, market cap. £32m
Big Sofa (BST) - Cash guzzler, revenues £757,000, market cap. £15m
Concepta (CPT), Cash guzzler, revenues £3,730 (that's not a joke btw), market cap. £14.5m.
In your words Winnifrith, it makes them "bad companies on absurd valuations".
Just by way of comparison
Trakm8 (Trak) - Cash generated from operations £700,000 and £4.5m (2016), revenues £27m, market cap. £33m.
No wonder Winnifrith is a failed investor who's ended up pimping shares for others. I rest my case m'lord.
Of course, this is AIMHO and I'm sure Winnifrith is a wonderful honest delightful human being ;)
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/shares-to-avoid-at-all-costs.html
I've been informed that Winnifrith has written a piece about Trakm8 where he says that the business is bad because:-
"It is bad becuase it just does not generate free cashflow."
and later
"The fact is that TrakMK8 is still not generating free cashflow and that makes the valuation absurd."
Trakm8's valuation is around £33m.
Let's address this issue.
Firstly, Trakm8 didn't generate Free Cash flow this year largely because of heavy investment and delayed contracts. However, let's see what happens next year and not forget that they had good cash generation in the prior year enabling them to pay a 2p dividend.
I'm not sure what Winnifrith's beef is with Trakm8, perhaps they refused to turn up at one of his silly insignificant investor shows? Who knows.
Anyway let's expose the duplicitous and hypocritical little berk for what he is.
A question for Winnifrith. What is the Free Cash Flow at these companies? OptiBiotix, Premaitha Health, Big Sofa Technologies and Concepta?
I'll save you some time. They are all cash guzzlers with sod all revenues on ludicrous market caps. Yet good honest Winnifrith is pumping these companies on behalf of his organ grinder Adam Reynolds for all his worth. Have you no shame Winnifrith?
OptiBiotix (Opti) - Cash guzzler, revenues £288,000, market cap. £53m
Premiatha (Nipt) - Cash guzzler, revenues £3.1m, market cap. £32m
Big Sofa (BST) - Cash guzzler, revenues £757,000, market cap. £15m
Concepta (CPT), Cash guzzler, revenues £3,730 (that's not a joke btw), market cap. £14.5m.
In your words Winnifrith, it makes them "bad companies on absurd valuations".
Just by way of comparison
Trakm8 (Trak) - Cash generated from operations £700,000 and £4.5m (2016), revenues £27m, market cap. £33m.
No wonder Winnifrith is a failed investor who's ended up pimping shares for others. I rest my case m'lord.
Of course, this is AIMHO and I'm sure Winnifrith is a wonderful honest delightful human being ;)
Shares to avoid at all costs
If you asked me what is the easiest way to lose money then I'd say (in general) invest in a company with a multi-million pound capitalisation that has next to zero revenues and clearly needs paid cheerleaders to try to keep the share price propped up until the next dilutive fund raising. True jam tomorrow companies.
Here's a quick list of companies to avoid at all costs.
OptiBiotix (Opti), Premiatha Health (Nipt), Concepta and Big Sofa Technologies.
Firstly, I have chosen these companies because they boast the toxic combination of someone called Adam Reynolds and Tom Winnifrith. Organ grinder and monkey respectively.
Secondly, they all have multi-million pound market caps. based on hot air and the promises of vast riches to come. You'll be lucky if even one of these companies actually fulfills anything like it's promise. I have doubts any will get anywhere even if they survive at all.
If you care to look at their reports you'll also see that the revenues they generate are next to nothing and it goes without saying that profits are years away. The one thing you will be able to guarantee is that there'll be plenty of dilutive fundraisings since they'll all struggle to generate any cash.
Let's look at a couple of these companies shall we.
OptiBiotix. I've written about this company before. Always on the verge of multi-million pound deals, and has been since I set up a thread getting towards 1.5 years ago:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=35291865
Filter all the trolls (that's pretty everyone except me :) ) and you'll see I've been absolutely bang on with this one.
Understandably the share price has gone nowhere in this time since it truly is a jam tomorrow stock. Last reported revenues were less than £300,000. Market cap. is £53m. Yes it really is laugh out loud silly since the business model hasn't even been proven. All RNS's regarding so-called deals give absolutely no guide to future revenues. Why? The usual b*llsh*t about confidentially. It's funny how the revenue generating, profitable, cash generative companies don't seem to have a problem with this issue isn't it?
So are things on the up for OptiBiotix? Well given that the interim period ended in May and they've since had an AGM then surely investors have been given a guide to revenues, cash on the balance sheet, cash outflow, future projections etc.
No they haven't. Why might that be do you think? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Did anyone shout pathetic revenues and cash-call AHOY captain? I couldn't possibly comment.
Premiatha Health. Even worse. Revenues to be reported this year just £3.1m. Market cap. £32m. Burning cash like it's going out of fashion and litigation hanging over it like the sword of damocles.
Again it's just laugh out loud silly.
Have a look at BST and CPT as well. Is there a pattern emerging? ;)
I don't do advice on the blog, but personally I'd avoid companies like this like the plague.
Another partnership to be aware of is the other combination of a bloke called Nigel Wray and Winnifrith.
Take a look at the R4E advfn thread. Despite numerous highly dilutive fund raisings, R4E still has far too much debt and unbelievably can't guarantee that it won't breach it's banking covenants again:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=30989538
Oh dear! Doesn't bode well does it.
Just for clarity, I offer no advice and all the views and opinions expressed are entirely imo.
Here's a quick list of companies to avoid at all costs.
OptiBiotix (Opti), Premiatha Health (Nipt), Concepta and Big Sofa Technologies.
Firstly, I have chosen these companies because they boast the toxic combination of someone called Adam Reynolds and Tom Winnifrith. Organ grinder and monkey respectively.
Secondly, they all have multi-million pound market caps. based on hot air and the promises of vast riches to come. You'll be lucky if even one of these companies actually fulfills anything like it's promise. I have doubts any will get anywhere even if they survive at all.
If you care to look at their reports you'll also see that the revenues they generate are next to nothing and it goes without saying that profits are years away. The one thing you will be able to guarantee is that there'll be plenty of dilutive fundraisings since they'll all struggle to generate any cash.
Let's look at a couple of these companies shall we.
OptiBiotix. I've written about this company before. Always on the verge of multi-million pound deals, and has been since I set up a thread getting towards 1.5 years ago:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=35291865
Filter all the trolls (that's pretty everyone except me :) ) and you'll see I've been absolutely bang on with this one.
Understandably the share price has gone nowhere in this time since it truly is a jam tomorrow stock. Last reported revenues were less than £300,000. Market cap. is £53m. Yes it really is laugh out loud silly since the business model hasn't even been proven. All RNS's regarding so-called deals give absolutely no guide to future revenues. Why? The usual b*llsh*t about confidentially. It's funny how the revenue generating, profitable, cash generative companies don't seem to have a problem with this issue isn't it?
So are things on the up for OptiBiotix? Well given that the interim period ended in May and they've since had an AGM then surely investors have been given a guide to revenues, cash on the balance sheet, cash outflow, future projections etc.
No they haven't. Why might that be do you think? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Did anyone shout pathetic revenues and cash-call AHOY captain? I couldn't possibly comment.
Premiatha Health. Even worse. Revenues to be reported this year just £3.1m. Market cap. £32m. Burning cash like it's going out of fashion and litigation hanging over it like the sword of damocles.
Again it's just laugh out loud silly.
Have a look at BST and CPT as well. Is there a pattern emerging? ;)
I don't do advice on the blog, but personally I'd avoid companies like this like the plague.
Another partnership to be aware of is the other combination of a bloke called Nigel Wray and Winnifrith.
Take a look at the R4E advfn thread. Despite numerous highly dilutive fund raisings, R4E still has far too much debt and unbelievably can't guarantee that it won't breach it's banking covenants again:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=30989538
Oh dear! Doesn't bode well does it.
Just for clarity, I offer no advice and all the views and opinions expressed are entirely imo.
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