Trakm8 released their interims this morning, and it appears that the company has now resumed it's growth trajectory.
You can crunch the numbers all you like and perform some sort of forensic analysis on the results, but I've always found that sticking to very simple measures works for me.
Simply put, the interims were a great improvement on last year. What do you need to know?
For me it's just these facts:-
1) They generated £3.6m cash, paid down £2m in bank loans and added £730,000 to the balance sheet in the latest 6 months. Cash on the balance sheet stands at £2.7m.
2) Adjusted profit was up 78% to £1.05m, and adjusted basic EPS up 125% at 3.56p.
3) Solution sales were up 29% with the all important recurring revenues up 17% (£5.5m). Forget the overall revenue figure (up 12%) because it's distorted by their move out of low margin product sales.
4) At the period end they had approximately 217,000 units (Sept 2016: 177,000 units) reporting to their servers, being an increase of 23% over the last twelve months. This is an increase of 27,000 units (14%) since 31 March 2017.
5) Gross margin is steady at a more than healthy 48%.
They anticipate a stronger second half (as usual) with the visibility to support their second half expectations.
Pretty straightforward to me.
The share price was up 0.5p today, but has risen strongly in recent weeks following their October trading update. There were no surprises in the interims.
All the basic measures look pretty impressive to me, and I am hopeful that the company will go from strength to strength. For a growth company at the cutting edge of an exciting space, I'd suggest the share price has far further to run in the short, medium and longer term, although ultimately I'd expect Trakm8 to be acquired for between 4 and 10 times revenues (based on other Telematics company acquisitions).
Monday 27 November 2017
Friday 10 November 2017
Update AEO - a no brainer now surely?
AEO have just released their year end results at 11:15 today (Friday). They often tend to do this which gives the impression that they are trying to bury bad news. However, this isn't the case. In fact I'm suddenly a little more excited about AEO.
It's the best set of results they've put out since I've been interested in this tiddler.
The market may be slow to wake up, but if AEO execute well going forward then this could be primed to get very exciting.
It's a clear change of strategy as they try and move more towards growth than income (although a small dividend is always welcome). Dividend reduced from 2p last year to 0.5p this year. Was this why the two founders left the company earlier this year since their substantial shareholdings provided sizeable dividends?
The £469,489 of cash they added to the balance sheet over the year could have been used to pay shareholders a 5p dividend (i.e. 20% return) if they had wished and still retain a healthy £1.4m on the balance sheet. Which brings me on.
If they can prove they can generate growth by retaining the cash then that will be very exciting going forward. If not then the business if a great cash generator and can go back to being a terrific dividend payer. A win win situation surely?
I'm tempted to say that at these prices AEO is a no-brainer, although the caveat would be that it's a very small company. It has no debt and the cash on the balance sheet is almost equivalent to the current market cap. (£2.2m)
In fact the market cap. is less than 5 times the FCF for the year. If you take the last 6 months in isolation then it's even more impressive where they have generated almost £750,000 of FCF.
I don't think I've seen a cheaper company valuation since Avesco, albeit AEO is much smaller. The results have exceeded my expectations and then some.
Interesting times ahead.
It's the best set of results they've put out since I've been interested in this tiddler.
The market may be slow to wake up, but if AEO execute well going forward then this could be primed to get very exciting.
It's a clear change of strategy as they try and move more towards growth than income (although a small dividend is always welcome). Dividend reduced from 2p last year to 0.5p this year. Was this why the two founders left the company earlier this year since their substantial shareholdings provided sizeable dividends?
The £469,489 of cash they added to the balance sheet over the year could have been used to pay shareholders a 5p dividend (i.e. 20% return) if they had wished and still retain a healthy £1.4m on the balance sheet. Which brings me on.
If they can prove they can generate growth by retaining the cash then that will be very exciting going forward. If not then the business if a great cash generator and can go back to being a terrific dividend payer. A win win situation surely?
I'm tempted to say that at these prices AEO is a no-brainer, although the caveat would be that it's a very small company. It has no debt and the cash on the balance sheet is almost equivalent to the current market cap. (£2.2m)
In fact the market cap. is less than 5 times the FCF for the year. If you take the last 6 months in isolation then it's even more impressive where they have generated almost £750,000 of FCF.
I don't think I've seen a cheaper company valuation since Avesco, albeit AEO is much smaller. The results have exceeded my expectations and then some.
Interesting times ahead.
Friday 27 October 2017
Special report - OptiBiotix
Good evening all. It's a brief but important update re: OptiBiotix.
I have written about this company before and in July I said this:-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/shares-to-avoid-at-all-costs.html
Before we get to OptiBiotix, it's worth having a look at the share prices of CPT, BST and NIPT since I wrote the article. Not a pretty sight is it?
As for R4e, did it breach it's banking covenants again? No it didn't I hear you all cry. Oh yes it did I'm afraid, although you may have missed it. The company issued the RNS at 6pm on 18th of this month. That's right 18:00. Anyway here it is just in case you missed it:-
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/R4E/13401457.html
"the Directors of the Company understand that PNC remains fully supportive of r4e."
Perhaps they should know for sure?
Anyway, let's move on to OptiBiotix. In July I said this:-
"So are things on the up for OptiBiotix? Well given that the interim period ended in May and they've since had an AGM then surely investors have been given a guide to revenues, cash on the balance sheet, cash outflow, future projections etc.
No they haven't. Why might that be do you think? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Did anyone shout pathetic revenues and cash-call AHOY captain? I couldn't possibly comment."
Well I was certainly correct about the pathetic revenues at the half year. In fact worse than even I imagined. Total revenues amounted to £72,000. No, it's not a joke. It's less than they reported last year and significantly less than the previous 6 months , and neither of these were anything to shout about. Think about that. £72,000 revenues (not profits) and a market cap. touching £57m.
OptiBiotix's full year is the end of November. We're going to see a significant jump in revenues then? Nope, don't think so. What about 2018 then? I wouldn't bet your house on it. In fact I wouldn't bet anything to be honest. Have a listen to this guy and see how careful he is when talking about revenues. In fact I burst out laughing at one point near the end of the interview. See what you think:-
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/8299/optibiotix-health-focused-on-marketing-and-ramping-up-revenues-8299.html
Anyway, on to the main business. I was wrong about the cash call then? Nope. In my opinion it's coming.
Look at the latest set of interims. They are burning through cash at a rate of around £1m every six months. At end of November they will be down to their last million or less. In other words, six months left before they run out of cash. I presume they aren't going to let that happen. They won't be cash generative for some years yet (if at all of course). That means a cash call is relatively imminent.
They've already ramped up the spin, and it can't be to long before the begging bowl is out.
What price will the placing be? Difficult to say, but I'd guess a pretty hefty discount given the current market cap. relative to revenues (let's not even mention profits or FCF that would just be silly).
Anyway, good luck but I'm not a fan of these companies as you've probably gathered, although I should say that this blog is my own thoughts and opinions and I'm always prepared to stick my hand up if I get it wrong.
I have written about this company before and in July I said this:-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/shares-to-avoid-at-all-costs.html
Before we get to OptiBiotix, it's worth having a look at the share prices of CPT, BST and NIPT since I wrote the article. Not a pretty sight is it?
As for R4e, did it breach it's banking covenants again? No it didn't I hear you all cry. Oh yes it did I'm afraid, although you may have missed it. The company issued the RNS at 6pm on 18th of this month. That's right 18:00. Anyway here it is just in case you missed it:-
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/R4E/13401457.html
"the Directors of the Company understand that PNC remains fully supportive of r4e."
Perhaps they should know for sure?
Anyway, let's move on to OptiBiotix. In July I said this:-
"So are things on the up for OptiBiotix? Well given that the interim period ended in May and they've since had an AGM then surely investors have been given a guide to revenues, cash on the balance sheet, cash outflow, future projections etc.
No they haven't. Why might that be do you think? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Did anyone shout pathetic revenues and cash-call AHOY captain? I couldn't possibly comment."
Well I was certainly correct about the pathetic revenues at the half year. In fact worse than even I imagined. Total revenues amounted to £72,000. No, it's not a joke. It's less than they reported last year and significantly less than the previous 6 months , and neither of these were anything to shout about. Think about that. £72,000 revenues (not profits) and a market cap. touching £57m.
OptiBiotix's full year is the end of November. We're going to see a significant jump in revenues then? Nope, don't think so. What about 2018 then? I wouldn't bet your house on it. In fact I wouldn't bet anything to be honest. Have a listen to this guy and see how careful he is when talking about revenues. In fact I burst out laughing at one point near the end of the interview. See what you think:-
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/8299/optibiotix-health-focused-on-marketing-and-ramping-up-revenues-8299.html
Anyway, on to the main business. I was wrong about the cash call then? Nope. In my opinion it's coming.
Look at the latest set of interims. They are burning through cash at a rate of around £1m every six months. At end of November they will be down to their last million or less. In other words, six months left before they run out of cash. I presume they aren't going to let that happen. They won't be cash generative for some years yet (if at all of course). That means a cash call is relatively imminent.
They've already ramped up the spin, and it can't be to long before the begging bowl is out.
What price will the placing be? Difficult to say, but I'd guess a pretty hefty discount given the current market cap. relative to revenues (let's not even mention profits or FCF that would just be silly).
Anyway, good luck but I'm not a fan of these companies as you've probably gathered, although I should say that this blog is my own thoughts and opinions and I'm always prepared to stick my hand up if I get it wrong.
Thursday 13 July 2017
What could possibly go wrong with a gold prospector in Sierra Leone?
Hello all. I'm back. Thought you might want to read an ADVFN post I made today on the SULA thread. In fact take a look at all of my posts on that thread if you've got a little time. You'll see the connection with recent blog posts:-
It's my reply to a poster called atlantic57.
"atlantic57 (post 3832) - "Michael mouse how were you able to predict the events that unfolded."
Bloody hell. Seriously? A gold prospector in Sierra Leone?
FFS.
If you've got a bit of fun money then you might get lucky. It does happen. 95% of the time though you're going to lose money on these punts.
I warned that a bunch of shysters were pumping it as if it was a sure thing. In fact at 5.4p originally. They then went for their usual trick of suggesting investors average down. See my previous posts.
Of course whilst I've been away, I've been reliably informed that the clown prince has been calling me all the names under the sun because I've basically exposed him for what he is. Really hit a nerve it appears. No good for his blood pressure or state of mind I'd say. I might add I haven't read or heard what he had to say so can't confirm this personally.
Btw after enjoying another lovely holiday, I'm back now just watching events unfold :). Great fun, and I'm not specifically talking about SULA either.
If you speculate on loss making companies with f**k all revenues, burning cash and on ludicrous market caps then 99% of the time you're going to come unstuck.
You're certainly never going to be able to retire early that's for sure. :) "
It's my reply to a poster called atlantic57.
"atlantic57 (post 3832) - "Michael mouse how were you able to predict the events that unfolded."
Bloody hell. Seriously? A gold prospector in Sierra Leone?
FFS.
If you've got a bit of fun money then you might get lucky. It does happen. 95% of the time though you're going to lose money on these punts.
I warned that a bunch of shysters were pumping it as if it was a sure thing. In fact at 5.4p originally. They then went for their usual trick of suggesting investors average down. See my previous posts.
Of course whilst I've been away, I've been reliably informed that the clown prince has been calling me all the names under the sun because I've basically exposed him for what he is. Really hit a nerve it appears. No good for his blood pressure or state of mind I'd say. I might add I haven't read or heard what he had to say so can't confirm this personally.
Btw after enjoying another lovely holiday, I'm back now just watching events unfold :). Great fun, and I'm not specifically talking about SULA either.
If you speculate on loss making companies with f**k all revenues, burning cash and on ludicrous market caps then 99% of the time you're going to come unstuck.
You're certainly never going to be able to retire early that's for sure. :) "
Tuesday 4 July 2017
Cash flow is king
A quick line in a follow up to my earlier piece entitled "shares to avoid at all costs":-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/shares-to-avoid-at-all-costs.html
I've been informed that Winnifrith has written a piece about Trakm8 where he says that the business is bad because:-
"It is bad becuase it just does not generate free cashflow."
and later
"The fact is that TrakMK8 is still not generating free cashflow and that makes the valuation absurd."
Trakm8's valuation is around £33m.
Let's address this issue.
Firstly, Trakm8 didn't generate Free Cash flow this year largely because of heavy investment and delayed contracts. However, let's see what happens next year and not forget that they had good cash generation in the prior year enabling them to pay a 2p dividend.
I'm not sure what Winnifrith's beef is with Trakm8, perhaps they refused to turn up at one of his silly insignificant investor shows? Who knows.
Anyway let's expose the duplicitous and hypocritical little berk for what he is.
A question for Winnifrith. What is the Free Cash Flow at these companies? OptiBiotix, Premaitha Health, Big Sofa Technologies and Concepta?
I'll save you some time. They are all cash guzzlers with sod all revenues on ludicrous market caps. Yet good honest Winnifrith is pumping these companies on behalf of his organ grinder Adam Reynolds for all his worth. Have you no shame Winnifrith?
OptiBiotix (Opti) - Cash guzzler, revenues £288,000, market cap. £53m
Premiatha (Nipt) - Cash guzzler, revenues £3.1m, market cap. £32m
Big Sofa (BST) - Cash guzzler, revenues £757,000, market cap. £15m
Concepta (CPT), Cash guzzler, revenues £3,730 (that's not a joke btw), market cap. £14.5m.
In your words Winnifrith, it makes them "bad companies on absurd valuations".
Just by way of comparison
Trakm8 (Trak) - Cash generated from operations £700,000 and £4.5m (2016), revenues £27m, market cap. £33m.
No wonder Winnifrith is a failed investor who's ended up pimping shares for others. I rest my case m'lord.
Of course, this is AIMHO and I'm sure Winnifrith is a wonderful honest delightful human being ;)
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/shares-to-avoid-at-all-costs.html
I've been informed that Winnifrith has written a piece about Trakm8 where he says that the business is bad because:-
"It is bad becuase it just does not generate free cashflow."
and later
"The fact is that TrakMK8 is still not generating free cashflow and that makes the valuation absurd."
Trakm8's valuation is around £33m.
Let's address this issue.
Firstly, Trakm8 didn't generate Free Cash flow this year largely because of heavy investment and delayed contracts. However, let's see what happens next year and not forget that they had good cash generation in the prior year enabling them to pay a 2p dividend.
I'm not sure what Winnifrith's beef is with Trakm8, perhaps they refused to turn up at one of his silly insignificant investor shows? Who knows.
Anyway let's expose the duplicitous and hypocritical little berk for what he is.
A question for Winnifrith. What is the Free Cash Flow at these companies? OptiBiotix, Premaitha Health, Big Sofa Technologies and Concepta?
I'll save you some time. They are all cash guzzlers with sod all revenues on ludicrous market caps. Yet good honest Winnifrith is pumping these companies on behalf of his organ grinder Adam Reynolds for all his worth. Have you no shame Winnifrith?
OptiBiotix (Opti) - Cash guzzler, revenues £288,000, market cap. £53m
Premiatha (Nipt) - Cash guzzler, revenues £3.1m, market cap. £32m
Big Sofa (BST) - Cash guzzler, revenues £757,000, market cap. £15m
Concepta (CPT), Cash guzzler, revenues £3,730 (that's not a joke btw), market cap. £14.5m.
In your words Winnifrith, it makes them "bad companies on absurd valuations".
Just by way of comparison
Trakm8 (Trak) - Cash generated from operations £700,000 and £4.5m (2016), revenues £27m, market cap. £33m.
No wonder Winnifrith is a failed investor who's ended up pimping shares for others. I rest my case m'lord.
Of course, this is AIMHO and I'm sure Winnifrith is a wonderful honest delightful human being ;)
Shares to avoid at all costs
If you asked me what is the easiest way to lose money then I'd say (in general) invest in a company with a multi-million pound capitalisation that has next to zero revenues and clearly needs paid cheerleaders to try to keep the share price propped up until the next dilutive fund raising. True jam tomorrow companies.
Here's a quick list of companies to avoid at all costs.
OptiBiotix (Opti), Premiatha Health (Nipt), Concepta and Big Sofa Technologies.
Firstly, I have chosen these companies because they boast the toxic combination of someone called Adam Reynolds and Tom Winnifrith. Organ grinder and monkey respectively.
Secondly, they all have multi-million pound market caps. based on hot air and the promises of vast riches to come. You'll be lucky if even one of these companies actually fulfills anything like it's promise. I have doubts any will get anywhere even if they survive at all.
If you care to look at their reports you'll also see that the revenues they generate are next to nothing and it goes without saying that profits are years away. The one thing you will be able to guarantee is that there'll be plenty of dilutive fundraisings since they'll all struggle to generate any cash.
Let's look at a couple of these companies shall we.
OptiBiotix. I've written about this company before. Always on the verge of multi-million pound deals, and has been since I set up a thread getting towards 1.5 years ago:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=35291865
Filter all the trolls (that's pretty everyone except me :) ) and you'll see I've been absolutely bang on with this one.
Understandably the share price has gone nowhere in this time since it truly is a jam tomorrow stock. Last reported revenues were less than £300,000. Market cap. is £53m. Yes it really is laugh out loud silly since the business model hasn't even been proven. All RNS's regarding so-called deals give absolutely no guide to future revenues. Why? The usual b*llsh*t about confidentially. It's funny how the revenue generating, profitable, cash generative companies don't seem to have a problem with this issue isn't it?
So are things on the up for OptiBiotix? Well given that the interim period ended in May and they've since had an AGM then surely investors have been given a guide to revenues, cash on the balance sheet, cash outflow, future projections etc.
No they haven't. Why might that be do you think? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Did anyone shout pathetic revenues and cash-call AHOY captain? I couldn't possibly comment.
Premiatha Health. Even worse. Revenues to be reported this year just £3.1m. Market cap. £32m. Burning cash like it's going out of fashion and litigation hanging over it like the sword of damocles.
Again it's just laugh out loud silly.
Have a look at BST and CPT as well. Is there a pattern emerging? ;)
I don't do advice on the blog, but personally I'd avoid companies like this like the plague.
Another partnership to be aware of is the other combination of a bloke called Nigel Wray and Winnifrith.
Take a look at the R4E advfn thread. Despite numerous highly dilutive fund raisings, R4E still has far too much debt and unbelievably can't guarantee that it won't breach it's banking covenants again:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=30989538
Oh dear! Doesn't bode well does it.
Just for clarity, I offer no advice and all the views and opinions expressed are entirely imo.
Here's a quick list of companies to avoid at all costs.
OptiBiotix (Opti), Premiatha Health (Nipt), Concepta and Big Sofa Technologies.
Firstly, I have chosen these companies because they boast the toxic combination of someone called Adam Reynolds and Tom Winnifrith. Organ grinder and monkey respectively.
Secondly, they all have multi-million pound market caps. based on hot air and the promises of vast riches to come. You'll be lucky if even one of these companies actually fulfills anything like it's promise. I have doubts any will get anywhere even if they survive at all.
If you care to look at their reports you'll also see that the revenues they generate are next to nothing and it goes without saying that profits are years away. The one thing you will be able to guarantee is that there'll be plenty of dilutive fundraisings since they'll all struggle to generate any cash.
Let's look at a couple of these companies shall we.
OptiBiotix. I've written about this company before. Always on the verge of multi-million pound deals, and has been since I set up a thread getting towards 1.5 years ago:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=35291865
Filter all the trolls (that's pretty everyone except me :) ) and you'll see I've been absolutely bang on with this one.
Understandably the share price has gone nowhere in this time since it truly is a jam tomorrow stock. Last reported revenues were less than £300,000. Market cap. is £53m. Yes it really is laugh out loud silly since the business model hasn't even been proven. All RNS's regarding so-called deals give absolutely no guide to future revenues. Why? The usual b*llsh*t about confidentially. It's funny how the revenue generating, profitable, cash generative companies don't seem to have a problem with this issue isn't it?
So are things on the up for OptiBiotix? Well given that the interim period ended in May and they've since had an AGM then surely investors have been given a guide to revenues, cash on the balance sheet, cash outflow, future projections etc.
No they haven't. Why might that be do you think? I'll leave it to your imagination.
Did anyone shout pathetic revenues and cash-call AHOY captain? I couldn't possibly comment.
Premiatha Health. Even worse. Revenues to be reported this year just £3.1m. Market cap. £32m. Burning cash like it's going out of fashion and litigation hanging over it like the sword of damocles.
Again it's just laugh out loud silly.
Have a look at BST and CPT as well. Is there a pattern emerging? ;)
I don't do advice on the blog, but personally I'd avoid companies like this like the plague.
Another partnership to be aware of is the other combination of a bloke called Nigel Wray and Winnifrith.
Take a look at the R4E advfn thread. Despite numerous highly dilutive fund raisings, R4E still has far too much debt and unbelievably can't guarantee that it won't breach it's banking covenants again:-
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=30989538
Oh dear! Doesn't bode well does it.
Just for clarity, I offer no advice and all the views and opinions expressed are entirely imo.
Sunday 5 March 2017
What exactly is going on here?
There's a great expression that states "bull**it baffles brains".
I don't know why it's just come to mind, but I have been running through a few recent RNS releases from the CEO of a company called OptiBiotix, Stephen O'Hara.
I don't know where to start really, but let's revisit this RNS released at the end of November. It's their most recent Scientific and Commercial Update:-
http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Scientific-and-Commercial-Up/73014647
So it's blah, blah, blah.........
then we get this:-
"OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms. A number of these discussions have been ongoing for many months and have involved extensive due diligence of OptiBiotix's science, intellectual property, and the partners assessment of the scale of the market opportunity across international markets. These discussions include a number of leading industry corporate players who provide product development, manufacturing, distribution, and/or routes to global markets.
Whilst OptiBiotix cannot guarantee that all discussions will lead to commercial deals it wants to update shareholders on the ongoing commercial progress being made across all of its products and platforms."
Now that first sentence sounds great doesn't it? "OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms."
I don't know why it's just come to mind, but I have been running through a few recent RNS releases from the CEO of a company called OptiBiotix, Stephen O'Hara.
I don't know where to start really, but let's revisit this RNS released at the end of November. It's their most recent Scientific and Commercial Update:-
http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Scientific-and-Commercial-Up/73014647
So it's blah, blah, blah.........
then we get this:-
"OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms. A number of these discussions have been ongoing for many months and have involved extensive due diligence of OptiBiotix's science, intellectual property, and the partners assessment of the scale of the market opportunity across international markets. These discussions include a number of leading industry corporate players who provide product development, manufacturing, distribution, and/or routes to global markets.
Whilst OptiBiotix cannot guarantee that all discussions will lead to commercial deals it wants to update shareholders on the ongoing commercial progress being made across all of its products and platforms."
Now that first sentence sounds great doesn't it? "OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms."
but the last paragraph tells you all. It doesn't have a single commercial deal secured at this stage.
Let's move on.
December 2016:-
http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Joint-Product-Agreement-with/73122363
Wow! A joint product agreement with a multi-national. Excellent. Is this one of the six possible deals they were referring to? Well to be honest, I haven't a clue. If it is then in actual fact it's not a commercial deal at all.
"The aim of the Agreement is to develop weight management products containing SlimBiome(R) technology in a range of foods and OTC products which, if successful, will be launched into the Asian market in the second half of 2017. "
They are just developing products with a partner.
What also confuses me is this.
They then say:-
"The Company requires its identity and commercial details to remain confidential and no further details can be disclosed at this time."
A bit weird when not long after Stephen O'Hara clearly stated in an interview that the company in question was a subsidiary of Tata. The bulletin boards had been awash with this information already. Eh?
Most recently we had this:-
http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/optibiotix-h-OPTI/share-news/OptiBiotix-Health-PLC-Launch-of-products-at-Vitafo/73978952
In essence I think it says that they are attending a trade show with some of their new products. So that's still no commercial agreements then?
I love this bit:-
"This has paralleled discussions with manufacturers, formulators and distribution partners to develop a range of product formulations to meet different application needs in international markets. The overall aim of this work has been to increase industry awareness of LP(LDL) (R) to develop numerous opportunities with national and international partners who have rights to specific formulations and presentations in different territories. This could create the potential for revenue streams at multiple points in the value chain including sale of the strain as an ingredient by manufacturers and royalties from the sales of higher value white label formulations and branded products."
Wow! The potential for revenue streams. It doesn't get better than that. Sarcasm.
In summary, it appears to me that there isn't one commercial deal that has been landed or have I somehow missed the details somewhere?
It appears to me that the only current revenue generator is some newly formed dietary brand called "Go Figure" in which OptiBiotix are the majority stakeholders (64%).
Last reported revenues were a little over £80,000. If I was holding shares in this company, I'd be questioning when and from where are significant revenues going to be generated?
Despite frequent RNS releases, it doesn't appear that significant revenues are anywhere close yet. Let's not mention cashflow and profits.
I would be very surprised if the company doesn't have many future highly dilutive fundraisings. Hopefully they may prove me wrong.
Finally, does anybody remember "Coleman Balls", well how about this one, "OptiBollox".
Just a reminder that my blog consists of my personal thoughts only on various companies. I never issue buy or sell advice in shares. Please DYOR.
Disappointing year for Trakm8, but still confident going forward
It's been a disappointing year for Trakm8 where they have failed to meet ambitious growth targets.
It appears to me that Trakm8's management saw a massive market opportunity and have gone for it all guns blazing.
Let's not pretend that this wasn't and isn't risky. It is.
However, following the full year profit warning, John Watkins the CEO stumped up £50,000 to buy more shares at 76p.
A small fund raising quickly followed at 65p, and Watkins plus five other Directors purchased an even more substantial £811,000 in support. Institutional holders have been quick and keen to follow in the fund raise.
The Director's have a massive amount of "skin in the game" and I hope that this year proves a blip in what has been a terrific growth story to date.
I remain confident that this will be the case.
I just looked back to when I first bought my Trakm8 shares (see blog post below):-
hTTp://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/your-m8-my-m8-trackm8.html
A couple of interesting things to note.
1) Directors had just purchased a big wedge of shares between themselves showing massive confidence. Share price went on to 30 bag from that point.
2) It shows just how far the company has come since 2011 when revenues at that point were around £4m per annum.
One or two "gob shites" trying to say "I told you so" at the moment. Perhaps they'd have done better to alert investors to the 30 bagging potential in 2011.
As mentioned above, there can be no guarantees that management's strategy works longer term, but if they get this right then I still see £10-£20 on the cards with a medium/long term outlook. If nothing else you have to admire their full on commitment to making it work, they've certainly "put their money where their mouth is" and deserve continued success.
We'll see in due course.
A couple of interesting things to note.
1) Directors had just purchased a big wedge of shares between themselves showing massive confidence. Share price went on to 30 bag from that point.
2) It shows just how far the company has come since 2011 when revenues at that point were around £4m per annum.
One or two "gob shites" trying to say "I told you so" at the moment. Perhaps they'd have done better to alert investors to the 30 bagging potential in 2011.
As mentioned above, there can be no guarantees that management's strategy works longer term, but if they get this right then I still see £10-£20 on the cards with a medium/long term outlook. If nothing else you have to admire their full on commitment to making it work, they've certainly "put their money where their mouth is" and deserve continued success.
We'll see in due course.
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