Monday 3 February 2020

Can it rise from the ashes once more?

It's difficult to believe that SpaceandPeople (SAL) was a former darling of the stock market, as the share price languishes at 11.25p down a further 6% after today's trading update. I think today's fall  may reflect a lack of interest in a forgotten micro-cap rather than a reaction to today's news, but more of that later.

In summary the company describes itself as follows:-

"SpaceandPeople (AIM:SAL), the retail, promotional and brand experience specialist which facilitates and manages the sale of promotional and retail merchandising space in shopping centres and other high footfall venues"

In 2007 the share price of SAL hit the dizzy heights of 220p only to fall sharply to around 45p (like so many other companies at the time), and then rise once more like a "phoenix from the flames" to around 150p in 2014. Sadly, and perhaps not surprisingly, the share price alongside the company's fortunes has slid back to today's 11.5p seemingly mirroring the demise and troubles of the high street.

Can it rise once more?

Firstly, let's be realistic and confront the negatives. Over recent years SAL has been a serial disappointer, always on the verge of returning to growth, but never quite managing it. Indeed this morning's trading update reported revenues below expectations and slightly below last year at £7.7m.

https://londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/SAL/14407056.html

On the plus side, they have recorded a very small profit before tax (around £100,000) which is broadly in-line with expectations. It should be noted these were revised targets following higher expectations at the beginning of the year. So not inspiring so far.

However, context is everything and SpaceandPeople is valued at around a measly £2m, and there are some positives worth considering.

Their year end cash position was £1.2m with £0.6m of bank debt.

Most interestingly, they've upped the dividend payout by 50% to 0.75p from last year's 0.5p. If you bought the shares at today's price of 11.5p then you'll get a nice yield of 6.5%. Perhaps, more pertinently, the dividend hike suggests that they're confident of an improved performance in 2020.

So what has inspired that confidence?

In today's trading statement, they also announced a contract win with Abellio and a contract extension with Network Rail:-

"The Group is also pleased to announce that a multi-year agreement has been signed with Abellio to provide commercialisation activity in the Greater Anglia and West Midlands rail regions. This is the first time that SpaceandPeople has worked with Abellio and we look forward to growing this relationship.
Also, the Network Rail agreement that was due to expire in September 2020 has been extended by a further year and we look forward to continuing to expand on this very successful relationship."
Furthermore, at the interim stage the company had this to say about prospects for 2020:-
"However, the foundations for a sustainable and significant turnaround have begun. Although the resurgence of German RMUs has come too late to have a significant impact on 2019, the new venues joining our service this year and the pipeline of additional venues in development for 2020 is the most positive it has been for many years. This will result in substantial revenue improvements  next year."
As mentioned, they've disappointed in recent years, and who's to say they won't disappoint again this year? However, with such a tiny market cap., a current progressive dividend policy, and hints of a turnaround (I suspect they would payout at least a 1p next year or 8.7% at today's share price), there is the potential for a significant upside surprise from this tiddler imo.
As ever, no recommendations are made and it's AIMHO.