Regular readers of my blog will remember that, for a bit of fun back in 2011, I decided to see how the share prices of eight companies, which had recently taken a bit of a battering, would compare over time to the fortunes of the FTSE-250. I suppose it would be fair to say that one or two of the eight companies could be considered high risk. Indeed one of the companies was Game Group which subsequently went bust.
You can read my original blog here:-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/very-little-research-but-are-these.html
My last update was in March of this year where I reported a good turnaround in the fortunes of the hopeless cases portfolio, but with the FTSE-250 still well ahead in terms of it's performance (21.4% against 41%):-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/remarkable-turnaround-in-fortunes-of.html
So what's been happening since March?
Well, you may or may not be surprised to know that the FTSE-250 has now gained 48.5%, but more remarkably the hopeless cases portfolio is now showing a 46.6% gain. This is despite a right off in the virtual capital invested in Game Group.
The two biggest stars of the portfolio are Thomas Cook and ITV. In August 2011 their share prices stood at 43.55p and 55.85p respectively. Currently TCG is 150.1p and ITV 167.6p, gains of 244.7% and 200%.
Should we have expected these gains and risked the house with an investment? Well retrospectively it seems obvious that these were potential multi-baggers in the making. Both companies are huge brands, and if they weren't going to go bust and could be turned around, then subsequent share price gains now appear inevitable. The power of hindsight is wonderful.
However, at the time there were no guarantees that either company wouldn't go the way of Game Group. In fact both TCG and ITV share prices did fall into the teens at one stage, and I think I'm right in saying that both have more than ten bagged since those dark days. Well done to the investors that got in at those levels. Fantastic returns.
The other companies that have posted gains include Vodafone (+21%), Cable and Wireless Communications (+26.4%) and Aviva (+16.5% and +13.8% respectively). There are two figures for Aviva since I reinvested the profits from Cable and Wireless communications into more Aviva shares. See March blog above for reasoning.
The only loser in the portfolio at the moment (apart from game Group) is Man. Group (-61%).
Over the past two years I do find it interesting that this 'hopeless' portfolio is less than two percentage points below the FTSE-250, given that GAME went bust and MAN has lost more than 60% of its value. Apart from TCG and ITV, the other picks have underperformed the indices so far. Neither TCG or ITV were bought anywhere near their lows.
It does bring me back to a point I made in a previous blog:-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/a-week-of-mixed-fortunes-for-two.html
"Some investors would argue that the preservation of capital is the most important dictum in investing and I'd agree. However, if you're a stock picker I'd strongly argue that it's the whole portfolio of shares that you look at and you shouldn't get too hung up about any individual stock losses."
and
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/regrets-i-have-few-but-then-again.html
"As mentioned above, it's never nice when an investment goes against you, but if you have a reasonable ability to pick out the hidden gems amongst the micro-caps (mostly AIM listed) then the rewards from the winners more than negate any losses incurred elsewhere.
As a scenario, let's say that you buy a portfolio of ten micro-caps at £1000 each. Two five bag, six lose half their value and two go bust. Not particularly good stock picking, but your original £10000 investment is now worth £13000 and you've made a 30% profit.
Unless you've proven to yourself that you can pick potential multi-baggers then of course the strategy above isn't going to work for you, but if you've got a proven track record in stock picking and are confident in your own ability then you're likely to do far better than the scenario detailed above. With an added bit of luck you've also got the chance of picking an ASOS or LO-Q for instance that will multiply your original investment manifold times."
P.S. I notice that the New Pistoia Fund is slowly increasing it's holding in Indigovision shares. I'll stick my neck out and say that a bid looks likely in the medium term at around £4 possibly?
As ever no advice is intended or given and I simply write the blog for enjoyment.
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
Tuesday, 30 July 2013
Angle - prelims
Angle released their preliminary results this morning, and apart from confirming the excellent progress that they have already made this year, there were no big surprises.
Just reading through the report does fill me with cautious optimism for the future of this company and the success of its Parsortix PR1 system.
The outlook statement summarises as follows:-
Just reading through the report does fill me with cautious optimism for the future of this company and the success of its Parsortix PR1 system.
The outlook statement summarises as follows:-
Garth Selvey, Chairman, commented:
"In a highly successful year, ANGLE not only completed the key development phase for its Parsortix system for capturing circulating tumour cells (CTCs) but also developed a new capability to harvest intact CTCs from patient blood for DNA analysis. The Parsortix system has already been well received by our research partners and is now being evaluated by key opinion leaders in the fields of cancer diagnosis and treatment. ANGLE is now focused on securing regulatory authorisations to allow it to address the multi-billion pound clinical market for the treatment of cancer patients."
Indications suggest that revenues should start to flow and be meaningful towards the later part of 2013 and into 2014 and beyond.
At the moment Angle still has £1.8m cash on the balance sheet (at year end at least), and there was no cash call to accompany the preliminary statement this morning. I think it's fair to say that they will need more cash in the not too distant future, but I am hopeful that this will now be possible to raise through the sale of Geometrics or from a fund raising at a substantial premium to the current share price.
I notice that Geometrics appears to be prospering "Enlighten has now become recognised by leading customers as the best lighting solution for the next generation platforms and sales are significantly up on the prior year. " From what I can ascertain, Angle's 31% holding in Geometrics has a book value around £4m? Although I am happy to be corrected on this.
I continue to hold, and no advice is intended or given. For any potential investors they are producing a webcast today which may be of interest:-
See below:-
"A meeting for analysts will be held at 11.30am today at the offices of Buchanan, 107 Cheapside, London, EC2V 6DN. For a webcast of the analyst meeting, please log on to the following web address about 5 minutes before 11.30am:
A recording of the webcast and presentation will be made available on ANGLE's and Buchanan's websites, www.ANGLEplc.com and www.buchanan.uk.com, following the analyst meeting."
Reach4entertainment - an apt name for an entertaining investment?
On the face of it, shares in Reach4entertainment, an Aim listed company look very cheap with a current market cap. of around £3m. The company which recently released an in-line trading statement has turnover around the £70m mark and a p/e ratio of less than 4.
Shares this morning have jumped by around 7% on a renegotiation of it's debt repayment:-
"Heads of Terms Agreement
r4e, the transatlantic media and entertainment company, today announces that it has entered into a Heads of Terms agreement with Allied Irish Bank to restructure the existing loan facility which is due to expire in May 2015.
This agreement, subject to contract, establishes a six year term from date of contract and a new interest rate of 3 per cent over LIBOR."
r4e, describes itself as a transatlantic media and entertainment company, and in recent times looks to have entered a period of uncertainty regarding it's future viability as a going concern. Hence the lowly share price.
The company has substantial debt and for investors with little appetite for high risk, this is certainly one to avoid since there is no margin of safety whatsoever. In fact if trading were to stall or worse suddenly deteriorate, then there is a chance that the company will go bust. The balance sheet shows that r4e has negative net assets despite £18m of goodwill on the balance sheet.
However, on the other side of the coin this is one of those companies that could multi-bag if they can keep costs under control and maintain trading momentum. Gross margins are reasonable (25%) and have improved 2% from last year.
Thomas cook are a good example in recent times of what can happen when heavily indebted companies begin to improve trading and are able to sort out their balance sheet. At one point TCG was trading at around 14p per share.
These "recovery play" situations are extremely risky but can be very rewarding indeed, and I'm certainly not averse to taking a punt from time to time. Ashtead was a really good example some years ago. I did buy Ashtead shares for about 15p if I remember rightly, but sold far too early. Currently the share price is 702p. Unbelievably at one point you could have bought the shares for 1.5p when it looked odds on that the company would go bust.
Will I buy r4e? It's certainly a dilemma! It would certainly be an entertaining if not nail-biting ride.
Shares this morning have jumped by around 7% on a renegotiation of it's debt repayment:-
"Heads of Terms Agreement
r4e, the transatlantic media and entertainment company, today announces that it has entered into a Heads of Terms agreement with Allied Irish Bank to restructure the existing loan facility which is due to expire in May 2015.
This agreement, subject to contract, establishes a six year term from date of contract and a new interest rate of 3 per cent over LIBOR."
r4e, describes itself as a transatlantic media and entertainment company, and in recent times looks to have entered a period of uncertainty regarding it's future viability as a going concern. Hence the lowly share price.
The company has substantial debt and for investors with little appetite for high risk, this is certainly one to avoid since there is no margin of safety whatsoever. In fact if trading were to stall or worse suddenly deteriorate, then there is a chance that the company will go bust. The balance sheet shows that r4e has negative net assets despite £18m of goodwill on the balance sheet.
However, on the other side of the coin this is one of those companies that could multi-bag if they can keep costs under control and maintain trading momentum. Gross margins are reasonable (25%) and have improved 2% from last year.
Thomas cook are a good example in recent times of what can happen when heavily indebted companies begin to improve trading and are able to sort out their balance sheet. At one point TCG was trading at around 14p per share.
These "recovery play" situations are extremely risky but can be very rewarding indeed, and I'm certainly not averse to taking a punt from time to time. Ashtead was a really good example some years ago. I did buy Ashtead shares for about 15p if I remember rightly, but sold far too early. Currently the share price is 702p. Unbelievably at one point you could have bought the shares for 1.5p when it looked odds on that the company would go bust.
Will I buy r4e? It's certainly a dilemma! It would certainly be an entertaining if not nail-biting ride.
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