Angle - next week's biggest riser?

I've never used and probably will never use spread bets. Far too risky for me. However, if I was going to use a spread bet then I would be very tempted to take a risk on Angle's SP moving sharply upwards sometime next week. It's not the forthcoming AGM that I think will have a dramatic impact, but the persistent rumours of bid interest that have appeared in the Times. Last week was the second time that the newspaper reported rumours of takeover talk in the region of £2+ per share. In fact they specifically quoted a possible bid at £2.25. It seems inconceivable to me that there isn't any substance to these rumours, and surely it's only a matter of time before they have to come clean.

Long term investors, like me, are probably thinking along the same lines at the moment. That is to say, if anybody is willing to stump up over £2 a share for the company now, then what could it be worth in a year or two's time when the Parsortix device has CE and FDA approval and is being marketed for clinical sales? Sadly, given that the SP currently stands in the low 80s, I expect anybody bidding above £2 i.e. more than a 100% premium, is unlikely to be rebuffed by majority shareholders.

No advice is intended, but brave spread betters might fancy a punt on Angle tomorrow, although depending on what tomorrow brings, they might have already missed their opportunity. I'm not that brave and I'll stick with my long position, but it should be an interesting week.

Avesco should be in contact with shareholders in the not too distant future regarding the details of the special dividend payout (£1.10). Stripping this payment out leaves a current share price of £1.15 or fully diluted market cap. of just under £32m. This is cheap and a healthy discount to tangible net asset value. The Winter Olympics, Football World Cup and Commonwealth games should provide a very healthy boost to earnings during 2014 and, as mentioned many times in the past, this is a cash generative company where I believe dividends will probably rise to around 5p in 2014. Based on a share price of £1.15 (post Disney payout) this equates to a 4.3% dividend.

Also of interest, Avesco appear to have recently invested in new lightweight LED displays which appear to be having a major impact:-

http://www.ct-group.com/news/ct-introduces-worlds-lightest-full-resolution-led-system

"Commenting on the first shows to be completed in the US, Graham Andrews President CT North America and Asia Pacific, commented "The light weight, speed of deployment and image quality of this product has been incredible. We believe it will be a real game changer in how medium resolution LED can be applied to shows from the largest Corporate or Entertainment application to small displays in TV studios etc." "

"Dave Crump, CEO of Creative Technology in Europe and the Middle East added "getting this product to market has been a tough challenge, we have worked closely with the manufacturer to produce a hybrid version of their standard product which offers significant improvements in reliability and functionality, this has been done against some very tight deadlines. We look forward to seeing and sharing the results on some incredible projects in the coming months."

http://www.ct-group.com/news/cts-glux-carbon-10-led-system-redefines-event-environments-use

"CT and its partners already have access to over 1,000m2 of this product which we believe will have a major impact on the touring and live events industry. The ultra lightweight, speed of rigging and low operating cost mean productions with modest budgets can now incorporate spectacular moving screens. "

UBC Media - this week's best performer

The best performer in my portfolio this week was UBC Media, and as reported in the FT yesterday it was also the best performer on the stock market with a share price rise of 96.2%. The current market cap. of UBC is now around £12.5m and it's already been a spectacular performer for me, but I won't be selling. To listen to my reasoning click the audioboo link below:-

https://audioboo.fm/boos/1688042-ubc-media-further-investment-in-audio-boo

As ever, no advice intended or given.

Densitron - still no good reason to re-invest

Densitron, a company that I have commented on in the past, released a statement this week concerning the settlement of a claim made against the Company by the landlords of a property in Newcastle previously occupied by a former subsidiary, Densitron Ferrograph Limited.

In the past I have held shares in Densitron, but decided to sell when this case appeared to be dragging on and trading had deteriorated. Below you can see my comments back in August:-

 http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/updates-ubc-media-densitron-ddd-group.html

"Densitron was a company in which I held shares, but I did sell in June following a poor trading statement. You can follow my reasoning in the blog below:-

http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2013_06_01_archive.html

Following Friday's interim statement, I have no appetite to repurchase any shares in this company.

Revenues decreased by 6% whilst orders booked fell by 7% and the company reported a £315,000 loss.

Whilst the company sounds positive about the second half, has a reasonable balance sheet and is paying an interim dividend of 0.1p, I am nervous about the outstanding writ against the company. This matter has been dragging on for many months despite their attempts to resolve the matter out of court. A date has now been set for the trial on 8th December. This suggests to me that the Landlord has a very strong case, and any settlement either inside or outside of court could (imo) be very punitive for Densitron.

I'll continue to monitor the situation, and never say never, as the saying goes, but allied to recent inconsistent trading this one will remain on the monitor."

Whilst the management state that "the settlement is in the best interests of the group", no financial details have been disclosed and it appears that Densitron are still lumbered with the lease payments until an agent can find a suitable tenant.

I am guessing that the settlement is a hefty one, and then of course they will have incurred legal fees and are still liable for the rent of an unoccupied property.

In response to the news, the share price did move up a few percentage points surprisingly, but whilst Densitron's market cap. is very low, I can't see anything to get excited about and it will be interesting to see their balance sheet when they release their finals.

I really find it most odd that they state:-

"It was agreed that the details of the settlement would remain confidential but in essence the Company has agreed to a settlement amount and the rectification of the lease at the current market rent. "

Are they hoping to keep it secret forever? Will they just ignore it in their final results?

Perhaps they've forgotten that their shareholders are part owners of the company. Bizarre.

Personally, I wouldn't touch this company with a bargepole in the future following this fiasco.