Angle preliminary results

Angle is one of my more speculative holdings, and the company released their preliminary results this week alongside an evaluation of their Parsortix device by the CEP Group at the Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute.

In short Angle's success or failure hinges on the findings of Key Opinion Leaders finding a clear clinical utility for the Parsortix device. The advantages of the device compared with the competition in this field and the relative cost effectiveness are already well documented, so to my mind the key issue is summed up rather neatly in the following paragraph:-

"The pilot study now underway (by the CEP group) will evaluate the feasibility and potential clinical utility of routine use of the Parsortix system to provide CTC information for patients at presentation and throughout their treatment."

In other words if Key Opinion Leaders can identify clear positive benefits for cancer patients by using the harvesting capability of the Parsortix device then investors will have hit the jackpot and more importantly many more lives may be prolonged or saved from this pernicious disease (in all its forms) by the development of personalised medicine.

Currently, it does look promising. Ged Brady, Deputy and Genomics Leader within the Clinical & Experimental Pharmacology group at Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute commented:
"The evaluation phase of our work is now successfully complete and we see great promise in the application of the Parsortix technology for harvesting CTCs for molecular analysis to enable personalised cancer care. We are now undertaking pilot studies using the Parsortix system in both colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer."

At year end Angle had £3.9m cash on its balance sheet, and therefore a fund raising looks unlikely in the immediate future.

FDA approval is pending, but the big price driver will be the continued success of this device with Key Opinion Leaders and a tie up with one of the majors in agreeing a corporate deal and/or distribution partner. Given rumours earlier this year about a possible approach for the company, and the fact that Angle is essentially a one trick pony (albeit a potentially extremely rewarding trick), I expect the company to be sold in due course at a significant premium to the current price.

Speculative yes, but the signs are promising and I remain cautiously optimistic.

Belgravium trading update

An excellent trading update from Belgravium this morning:-

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-home.html?code=BVM&rbDate=released&preDate=Last3Months

Key bit states:-

"It was reported at the AGM that trading in the period had started slowly. Pleasingly trading picked up significantly in Q2 and as a consequence the results for the six months ended 30 June 2014 will show an increase in revenue and a significant improvement in profits compared to the equivalent period last year."

Trading is in line with expectations and second half weighted.

"The directors are encouraged by the level of enquiries and are confident that a good proportion of these can be converted to sales in the second half."

Broker forecasts:-

"Year Ending	Revenue (£m)	Pre-tax (£m)	EPS	P/E	PEG	EPS Grth.	Div	Yield"
31-Dec-14	10.20	0.70	0.66p	7.6	0.1	+65%	0.20p	4.0%
31-Dec-15	11.00	0.90	0.80p	6.3	0.3	+21%	0.25p	5.0%

This makes the shares look very cheap, particularly given current growth.

Appears to confirm my educated guess as to why the deal with Trakm8 fell at the first hurdle.  Belgravium are understandably looking for a premium price for the business, and Trakm8 management like to seek out bargain basement prices. Bodes well for both companies in the future.

Updates ACC, AVS and AVN

Following on from their interim results which were released this week, I notice that Michael Jackson has purchased another 500,000 shares at 2.9p (£14,500 worth) to add to his purchase in April of 1,280,000 at the higher price of 3.75p (£48,000 worth). Michael Jackson is the Non-Executive Chairman of Access Intelligence and now holds 10.36% of the company's issued share capital. You can see my previous blog for my thoughts on this week's interims.

I've also recently commented on Avesco who appear to be on track to beat market expectations for the full year. It's interesting to follow their Facebook page and Twitter feed where there appears to be a real leap in activity recently. This doesn't necessarily mean that business is booming compared to other years, but it does provide a timely reminder about the number of high profile events they are consistently involved in. Currently there is Golf's British Open and next week the Commonwealth Games. Yesterday they also announced this:-http://www.ct-group.com/news/ct-becomes-new-sponsor-eugames. Avesco is valued at approximately £20m and likes rewarding it's investors with chucky dividends.

Finally, Avanti Communications released a trading statement yesterday. It was a bit of a mixed bag, but given the highly speculative nature of an investment here, overall I remain encouraged by their progress. The key figures for me at this stage are that revenue is on track to meet market expectations at between $64m-$65m, and with a cash balance of $195m at year end they are well-financed. I am also encouraged that part of the shortfall in PBT is due to set up costs on large new projects, perhaps suggesting that revenue momentum is likely to continue. It shouldn't be forgotten that it's no mean feat getting two fully functional satellites into orbit, and in recent times their client list has become increasingly more impressive including the likes of Vodafone. Success certainly isn't assured just yet, and it's been a bumpy road but there are signs that the company is reaching a tipping point, and I certainly wouldn't write off the possibility of the company eventually becoming a takeover target.

Avanti is highly speculative as an investment, but whilst yesterday's trading statement caused an initial fall in the share price, there was an immediate bounce as longs honed in on the promising revenue momentum, current finances and the longer term opportunity. As a buy and hold investor you can ride out the fluctuations in share price movements over weeks, months and years if you believe in the company's long term prospects. Bears with short positions might be feeling a tad more nervous given Avanti's revenue momentum going forward and prospective cash generation.