Monday, 18 January 2016

Bull or Bear market? Heads or Tails?

A good article appeared in this Sunday's Telegraph regarding the current market uncertainty:-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/12103422/Help-for-investors-unfamiliar-with-Zen-like-calmness.html

I particularly love the quotes from the two legendary investors Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett:-

"Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity investment legend, put it well: “Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and mutual funds altogether.”

Warren Buffett was just as forthright: “Unless you can watch your stockholding decline by 50pc without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” "

I wholeheartedly agree with them, let's face it you'd be daft not too.

I don't normally comment on the gyrations of the main indices or macro conditions and prefer to concentrate my time on stock picking, particularly amongst the micro-caps. In my view, the current market uncertainty is a great opportunity to pick up shares where indiscriminate selling in thin markets is providing opportunities to pick up some bargains.

If I'm honest, despite the obvious wobbles in Asia (particularly China) I'm a little perplexed as to why there appears to be so much doom and gloom. Yes, I'm aware of plummeting oil and resource prices and the implications for oil and resource companies in general, but my simplistic view is that low oil prices coupled with historically low interest rates are generally good for most companies.

Clearly market sentiment isn't helped when Analysts start telling investors to sell everything. Possibly the worst advice I've ever heard. Is it just me, or do you begin to question someone's agenda when they come out with statements like that? It's worth remembering that these so-called financial experts get paid handsomely whether they are correct or not. Frightening really, and an excellent reason to manage your own investments.

Interestingly, it often makes me laugh when I hear traders say, "I'm taking money off the table and I'll start investing again when we reach the bottom of the market". How will they know when that happens? Is this a bear market or just a correction? If you thought a stock was good value a week ago and the news hasn't changed then why would you suddenly think it wasn't good value?

The reality is this. I'd guess some investors sell perfectly good stocks and then sit on their hands waiting for clear signs of a change in market direction that never arrives. Certainly in my investing lifetime, I've never recognised the onset of a bull or bear market phase until it's well advanced, and I've never seen anybody consistently get it right either, and that's with a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong. Most will probably revisit and buy back their shares when the price has already risen above the price they originally sold them for.

This is where I refer back to the Lynch and Buffet comments quoted earlier.

For what it's worth, I'd say the bull market has at least two more years to run before we suffer a significant setback. At least I've got a 50% chance of being right. With a ten year horizon however, I'm very confident that I'm right.

Thursday, 17 December 2015

When is a loss a loss?

A rhetorical question. When is a loss a loss or a profit a profit? Answer: Not until you take it. Sorry if that sounds patronising but bear with me.

In 2002, I invested in a company called Ashtead, I was still a relative novice but I noticed that the company had considerable assets and that the market cap. was around or below the value of it's assets. What I hadn't quite grasped (through naivety) was the size of it's debt.

I originally bought shares for 30p. However, the company started to look like it was in trouble and about to break it's banking covenants. I watched as the price sank from my 30p purchase price to an intra-day low of around 1.5p.

However, the company survived chiefly because of it's assets and as the share price and confidence began to return, I bought again at 15p. The price rose and I felt so proud of myself having survived the experience that when my holding turned a small profit I sold my shares. Hurray.

Ashtead's share price today is £11.27. Even my original 30p purchase would have 37.5 bagged. My 15p purchase would have 75 bagged. Oops.

Make what you will of my anecdote, but it was an invaluable and chastening lesson for me. Catch a few of these companies in your investing lifetime and the rest of your portfolio becomes almost immaterial.

Sunday, 6 December 2015

Avanti win BT contract

I have mentioned Avanti Communications several times on my blog. It's a speculative investment that I have made and, as such, I certainly wouldn't "bet the farm" on it. However, I am encouraged by the progress that they are now making and the contracts that they are winning. This morning they have announced a new contract with BT:-

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/12611890.html

This contract is highly significant since it provides a ringing endorsement of Avanti's technology from BT and the British Government.

Avanti has been a popular target for the shorters. Who knows what the future holds, but I would suggest that there are better targets to short than Avanti, particularly after today's news.

Avanti also boasts Facebook as a client and all of the national carriers in its core African markets.

My gut feeling is that they may be reaching a tipping point in their favour and that growth will accelerate from here. We shall see. There also remains the possibility that one of their larger clients may eventually fancy acquiring the whole group.

As speculative investments go, I am relatively happy with a long term hold here. Given this mornings news, I certainly wouldn't be comfortable holding a short position. Each to their own I suppose.