It's not often that one of your investments makes a 140% gain in a day, but that's exactly what happened to my holding in a company called Angle this week. In an earlier blog I'd described my interest in Angle as a 'punt'. To be more precise perhaps I should refer to it as a speculative investment since even after the huge rise in its share price, still over 100% despite a pullback, I have no intention of selling my holding in the near future.
What caused this sudden surge? Well it was the news that "the Company has achieved a major new breakthrough in the potential use of its Parsortix non-invasive cancer diagnostic product". Full story at the following link:- http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/55820539. As I mentioned in my previous blog at the end of December, if their Parsortix device is successful then its potential is huge.
My guess is that this news wouldn't have been released if any major issues with their research partners (currently testing the device) had cropped up, in fact one might assume quite the opposite. It is just guess work at this stage though, and of course there are still any number of banana skins that could potentially derail the current smooth progress. However, for the moment, the chances of success have certainly tipped in Angle's favour. Furthermore, if Angle do need to raise more cash from the markets, which is by no means a given, then the likelihood is that any placing will be at a price well above the levels I was buying the shares.
I'm not getting too excited at this early stage, but part of my investing style is about perceived value and a balance of probabilities. I can't claim on fundamentals that this was good value (see my previous blog - A new Angle), but this week I can't help feeling that the balance of probabilities has shifted in my favour. This is one to hold for the long term and watch developments. It might all end in tears yet, but conversely it could be a multi-bagger in the making. Time will tell.
It's also worth remembering that it's in everybody's interests for Parsortix to be a success, since it has the potential to save thousands of lives if it can guide treatments and provide early detection for various types of cancer. On that basis alone it would be a truly fantastic investment.
On other issues Avesco's Creative Technology have a swish new website:-
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/55820539
Well worth a browse to see the diversity of projects they undertake globally.
As ever, no advice is intended or given.
P.S. By the way since Angle has already risen by 100% does that mean I've won the 2013 stocks to double competition on ADVFN. Perhaps traders would say yes (they've probably been and gone) and long termers would say no!!!!!
Sunday, 20 January 2013
Sunday, 13 January 2013
Avesco wins the Gold medal!!
Well, so much for my New Year resolution to post more often on my blog. Note to self, don't make resolutions that are almost impossible to keep. In truth I should have known that I don't really have sufficient time at the moment to post regularly due to other commitments. I might also point out that ad revenues from my blog, whilst welcome, are very small and hardly a great incentive to spend too much time posting when I can more usefully use the additional time on research.
Anyway, I shall endeavour to post at least once a week.
Avesco released their full year 2012 results this week, and as I predicted at the start of the year, results came in above market expectations with adjusted basic EPS at 21.7p. A gold medal performance indeed from staff and management who have clearly exploited the London Olympics to the full. In fact results would have been even more impressive if it wasn't for losses at CT Asia Pacific (around £1m) and costs associated with restructuring at Presteigne Charter.
Excellent results all round however, with revenues up 14%, operating profit 196%, trading profit 217% and EBITDA up 34%.
Markets are forward looking though, so what of 2013? Well the first quarter has been slow, but Avesco have indicated that Chinese operations are now more encouraging and that both the UK and US are showing clear signs of an upturn in business. It's highly unlikely that this year's bumper results will be repeated in 2013 due to the odd year effect, but it's probable that the underlying business will show further growth (although the first quarter will almost certainly show a loss).
Should I be looking to sell all or part of my holding in Avesco?
You must be joking.
This company is keeping its promises, and it's intentions are to continue to generate cash, reduce net debt, ensure the balance sheet remains strong and grow dividends. In the past two years Avesco have increased the dividend by 300% and 33% respectively with more increases on the way. Tangible NAV increased from £1.46 in 2011 to £1.52 this year. Margins have also been on the increase. As I have stated many times before Avesco is still cheap on any number of measures.
The share price is currently around £1.70, and is well supported by all of the above, throw in a possible £1.40 per share payout from Disney, a 29.9% shareholder in Taya Communications, a Chairman who fairly recently forked out a further £125,000 to buy shares in the group to bring his holding above 20% (most recently at prices around 160p - so not much below the current price), and their mysterious and tight-lipped reluctance to bring in a new CEO (although they would probably argue that management is sufficiently strong not to warrant hiring one in haste - umm...? over 6 months ago and counting).
This is also a company that is senstive to poor global economic conditions and yet Avesco has achieved outstanding growth in some of the most hostile conditions in the past 100 years. How will they fare when world economic growth eventually gathers speed? Very well I expect.
I can't see any reasons to part with a single share.
GCER have a 267p price target which I believe still underestimates the potential value to be unlocked here.
Anyway, as ever, interesting times ahead, and no advice intended or given.
Anyway, I shall endeavour to post at least once a week.
Avesco released their full year 2012 results this week, and as I predicted at the start of the year, results came in above market expectations with adjusted basic EPS at 21.7p. A gold medal performance indeed from staff and management who have clearly exploited the London Olympics to the full. In fact results would have been even more impressive if it wasn't for losses at CT Asia Pacific (around £1m) and costs associated with restructuring at Presteigne Charter.
Excellent results all round however, with revenues up 14%, operating profit 196%, trading profit 217% and EBITDA up 34%.
Markets are forward looking though, so what of 2013? Well the first quarter has been slow, but Avesco have indicated that Chinese operations are now more encouraging and that both the UK and US are showing clear signs of an upturn in business. It's highly unlikely that this year's bumper results will be repeated in 2013 due to the odd year effect, but it's probable that the underlying business will show further growth (although the first quarter will almost certainly show a loss).
Should I be looking to sell all or part of my holding in Avesco?
You must be joking.
This company is keeping its promises, and it's intentions are to continue to generate cash, reduce net debt, ensure the balance sheet remains strong and grow dividends. In the past two years Avesco have increased the dividend by 300% and 33% respectively with more increases on the way. Tangible NAV increased from £1.46 in 2011 to £1.52 this year. Margins have also been on the increase. As I have stated many times before Avesco is still cheap on any number of measures.
The share price is currently around £1.70, and is well supported by all of the above, throw in a possible £1.40 per share payout from Disney, a 29.9% shareholder in Taya Communications, a Chairman who fairly recently forked out a further £125,000 to buy shares in the group to bring his holding above 20% (most recently at prices around 160p - so not much below the current price), and their mysterious and tight-lipped reluctance to bring in a new CEO (although they would probably argue that management is sufficiently strong not to warrant hiring one in haste - umm...? over 6 months ago and counting).
This is also a company that is senstive to poor global economic conditions and yet Avesco has achieved outstanding growth in some of the most hostile conditions in the past 100 years. How will they fare when world economic growth eventually gathers speed? Very well I expect.
I can't see any reasons to part with a single share.
GCER have a 267p price target which I believe still underestimates the potential value to be unlocked here.
Anyway, as ever, interesting times ahead, and no advice intended or given.
Saturday, 5 January 2013
Fantastic 3D, but where do I invest?
I'm a great fan of 3D movies, and have recently taken my family to see 'The Hobbit' and 'The Life of Pi' at our local cinema. I can thoroughly recommend both films.
Over the past year or two I have seen a number of newspaper articles that suggest that the 3D revolution is over hyped. I disagree. Personally, I won't go to the cinema to watch a film that isn't in 3D. I absolutely love the experience, and I'm sure I can't be the only one.
Critics have noted that some 3D movies have not attracted the expected audiences and that consumers are opting for the 2D versions. Sales of 3D TVs have been sluggish. Two simple reasons I'd suggest: cost and content. 3D movies are far more expensive than there 2D version counterparts, and 3D TVs are still expensive with content sparse. The past few years have been exceptional economic times with low consumer confidence, but world growth will eventually gather momentum and, in my opinion, so will the 3D revolution. But where to invest?
A company that has been on my radar for some considerable time is DDD group which describes itself as follows:-
"DDD transforms the visual experience by bringing 3D to the consumer. Its TriDef(TM) 3D solutions convert 2D to 3D automatically, and enable delivery to 3D TVs, PCs and mobile devices. Leading brands including Intel, Samsung, LG Electronics and Sony license these solutions. Over 20 million TriDef 3D products have been shipped by DDD's licensees worldwide. DDD's Yabazam! label delivers 3D everywhere with its online content portal and Smart TV apps."
DDD is a growing company with a terrific client list (see above) and market leading technology, it's just turned a maiden profit and has a solid balance sheet and gross margins currently running at 96%. Revenues were up 74% in the 6 months to June at $4m with EPS at 0.06c. So why haven't I bought any?
With a current market cap. of £30m it's a bit too expensive for my tastes at the moment. However, should a suitable opportunity arise then I'll be a keen buyer.
Please note I can also be found on twitter at :-
https://twitter.com/michae1mouse
My recommended reads are:-
http://astore.amazon.co.uk/httpmichae1mb-21
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