This week, the main news came from my holdings in Angle and Avesco.
Firstly, Angle released their interim results and details of a £2.2m fundraising. I am very encouraged by both news items. Although there is little further news about the progress of the Parsortix device that wasn't already known, the product is on schedule to be released for sale to the research market in the near future. News of this development should provide the next driver of the share price.
As I have mentioned before, the success or failure of Angle will be down to this single product. Despite chatter on the boards regarding Geometrics, Angle have stated quite clearly that their fair value holding in Geometrics currently amounts to £3.6m (some very fanciful figures have been bandied about on the BBs). They also state that "market changes may make Geomerics an attractive acquisition target."
Their other investment in EmbryoSure(R) has effectively been shelved for the forseeable future.
Just to clarify my interpretation of the accounts. They will sell Geometrics as soon as the opportunity arises to raise more cash to launch Parsortix, and they won't do anything about EmbryoSure(R) for at least a couple of years or so. Angle is all about Parsortix.
The fundraising shouldn't have come as any surprise I have mentioned the likelihood in previous blogs, as well as my thoughts about their other investments:- http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/a-new-angle.html
Fortunately, as hoped, the placing price was well above my relatively recent purchase price. I consider the placing price of 50p quite a coup for Angle, and clearly investors who participated in the placing are very impressed with the progress of Parsortix. Incidently my purchase price was well below 30p, and I continue to hold all my shares.
So where next for Angle. Well I hope that they are successful selling the product to the research market without any banana skins. If, and hopefully when, they reach this stage, the share price will comfortably exceed £1+, and any future fundraisings (should they need them) will also be above £1.
Make no mistake, this is a cross your fingers and hope for the best speculative investment, but so far so good.
Other news came from Avesco where Richard Murray picked up another £300,000 worth of shares at 150p a piece and three other Directors collectively sold £141,818.20 to cover their tax liabilities. The reasons given for the share sales are plausible and Murray's large purchase, Taya's 29.9% holding, tangible asset value close to the current share price and the possible Disney payout provide considerable reassurance.
N.B. As always, no advice is intended or given, this is a personal blog about my own experiences and dealings in the market.
Sunday, 3 February 2013
Sunday, 20 January 2013
140% gain in a day... just the tip of the iceberg?
It's not often that one of your investments makes a 140% gain in a day, but that's exactly what happened to my holding in a company called Angle this week. In an earlier blog I'd described my interest in Angle as a 'punt'. To be more precise perhaps I should refer to it as a speculative investment since even after the huge rise in its share price, still over 100% despite a pullback, I have no intention of selling my holding in the near future.
What caused this sudden surge? Well it was the news that "the Company has achieved a major new breakthrough in the potential use of its Parsortix non-invasive cancer diagnostic product". Full story at the following link:- http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/55820539. As I mentioned in my previous blog at the end of December, if their Parsortix device is successful then its potential is huge.
My guess is that this news wouldn't have been released if any major issues with their research partners (currently testing the device) had cropped up, in fact one might assume quite the opposite. It is just guess work at this stage though, and of course there are still any number of banana skins that could potentially derail the current smooth progress. However, for the moment, the chances of success have certainly tipped in Angle's favour. Furthermore, if Angle do need to raise more cash from the markets, which is by no means a given, then the likelihood is that any placing will be at a price well above the levels I was buying the shares.
I'm not getting too excited at this early stage, but part of my investing style is about perceived value and a balance of probabilities. I can't claim on fundamentals that this was good value (see my previous blog - A new Angle), but this week I can't help feeling that the balance of probabilities has shifted in my favour. This is one to hold for the long term and watch developments. It might all end in tears yet, but conversely it could be a multi-bagger in the making. Time will tell.
It's also worth remembering that it's in everybody's interests for Parsortix to be a success, since it has the potential to save thousands of lives if it can guide treatments and provide early detection for various types of cancer. On that basis alone it would be a truly fantastic investment.
On other issues Avesco's Creative Technology have a swish new website:-
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/55820539
Well worth a browse to see the diversity of projects they undertake globally.
As ever, no advice is intended or given.
P.S. By the way since Angle has already risen by 100% does that mean I've won the 2013 stocks to double competition on ADVFN. Perhaps traders would say yes (they've probably been and gone) and long termers would say no!!!!!
What caused this sudden surge? Well it was the news that "the Company has achieved a major new breakthrough in the potential use of its Parsortix non-invasive cancer diagnostic product". Full story at the following link:- http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/55820539. As I mentioned in my previous blog at the end of December, if their Parsortix device is successful then its potential is huge.
My guess is that this news wouldn't have been released if any major issues with their research partners (currently testing the device) had cropped up, in fact one might assume quite the opposite. It is just guess work at this stage though, and of course there are still any number of banana skins that could potentially derail the current smooth progress. However, for the moment, the chances of success have certainly tipped in Angle's favour. Furthermore, if Angle do need to raise more cash from the markets, which is by no means a given, then the likelihood is that any placing will be at a price well above the levels I was buying the shares.
I'm not getting too excited at this early stage, but part of my investing style is about perceived value and a balance of probabilities. I can't claim on fundamentals that this was good value (see my previous blog - A new Angle), but this week I can't help feeling that the balance of probabilities has shifted in my favour. This is one to hold for the long term and watch developments. It might all end in tears yet, but conversely it could be a multi-bagger in the making. Time will tell.
It's also worth remembering that it's in everybody's interests for Parsortix to be a success, since it has the potential to save thousands of lives if it can guide treatments and provide early detection for various types of cancer. On that basis alone it would be a truly fantastic investment.
On other issues Avesco's Creative Technology have a swish new website:-
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/55820539
Well worth a browse to see the diversity of projects they undertake globally.
As ever, no advice is intended or given.
P.S. By the way since Angle has already risen by 100% does that mean I've won the 2013 stocks to double competition on ADVFN. Perhaps traders would say yes (they've probably been and gone) and long termers would say no!!!!!
Sunday, 13 January 2013
Avesco wins the Gold medal!!
Well, so much for my New Year resolution to post more often on my blog. Note to self, don't make resolutions that are almost impossible to keep. In truth I should have known that I don't really have sufficient time at the moment to post regularly due to other commitments. I might also point out that ad revenues from my blog, whilst welcome, are very small and hardly a great incentive to spend too much time posting when I can more usefully use the additional time on research.
Anyway, I shall endeavour to post at least once a week.
Avesco released their full year 2012 results this week, and as I predicted at the start of the year, results came in above market expectations with adjusted basic EPS at 21.7p. A gold medal performance indeed from staff and management who have clearly exploited the London Olympics to the full. In fact results would have been even more impressive if it wasn't for losses at CT Asia Pacific (around £1m) and costs associated with restructuring at Presteigne Charter.
Excellent results all round however, with revenues up 14%, operating profit 196%, trading profit 217% and EBITDA up 34%.
Markets are forward looking though, so what of 2013? Well the first quarter has been slow, but Avesco have indicated that Chinese operations are now more encouraging and that both the UK and US are showing clear signs of an upturn in business. It's highly unlikely that this year's bumper results will be repeated in 2013 due to the odd year effect, but it's probable that the underlying business will show further growth (although the first quarter will almost certainly show a loss).
Should I be looking to sell all or part of my holding in Avesco?
You must be joking.
This company is keeping its promises, and it's intentions are to continue to generate cash, reduce net debt, ensure the balance sheet remains strong and grow dividends. In the past two years Avesco have increased the dividend by 300% and 33% respectively with more increases on the way. Tangible NAV increased from £1.46 in 2011 to £1.52 this year. Margins have also been on the increase. As I have stated many times before Avesco is still cheap on any number of measures.
The share price is currently around £1.70, and is well supported by all of the above, throw in a possible £1.40 per share payout from Disney, a 29.9% shareholder in Taya Communications, a Chairman who fairly recently forked out a further £125,000 to buy shares in the group to bring his holding above 20% (most recently at prices around 160p - so not much below the current price), and their mysterious and tight-lipped reluctance to bring in a new CEO (although they would probably argue that management is sufficiently strong not to warrant hiring one in haste - umm...? over 6 months ago and counting).
This is also a company that is senstive to poor global economic conditions and yet Avesco has achieved outstanding growth in some of the most hostile conditions in the past 100 years. How will they fare when world economic growth eventually gathers speed? Very well I expect.
I can't see any reasons to part with a single share.
GCER have a 267p price target which I believe still underestimates the potential value to be unlocked here.
Anyway, as ever, interesting times ahead, and no advice intended or given.
Anyway, I shall endeavour to post at least once a week.
Avesco released their full year 2012 results this week, and as I predicted at the start of the year, results came in above market expectations with adjusted basic EPS at 21.7p. A gold medal performance indeed from staff and management who have clearly exploited the London Olympics to the full. In fact results would have been even more impressive if it wasn't for losses at CT Asia Pacific (around £1m) and costs associated with restructuring at Presteigne Charter.
Excellent results all round however, with revenues up 14%, operating profit 196%, trading profit 217% and EBITDA up 34%.
Markets are forward looking though, so what of 2013? Well the first quarter has been slow, but Avesco have indicated that Chinese operations are now more encouraging and that both the UK and US are showing clear signs of an upturn in business. It's highly unlikely that this year's bumper results will be repeated in 2013 due to the odd year effect, but it's probable that the underlying business will show further growth (although the first quarter will almost certainly show a loss).
Should I be looking to sell all or part of my holding in Avesco?
You must be joking.
This company is keeping its promises, and it's intentions are to continue to generate cash, reduce net debt, ensure the balance sheet remains strong and grow dividends. In the past two years Avesco have increased the dividend by 300% and 33% respectively with more increases on the way. Tangible NAV increased from £1.46 in 2011 to £1.52 this year. Margins have also been on the increase. As I have stated many times before Avesco is still cheap on any number of measures.
The share price is currently around £1.70, and is well supported by all of the above, throw in a possible £1.40 per share payout from Disney, a 29.9% shareholder in Taya Communications, a Chairman who fairly recently forked out a further £125,000 to buy shares in the group to bring his holding above 20% (most recently at prices around 160p - so not much below the current price), and their mysterious and tight-lipped reluctance to bring in a new CEO (although they would probably argue that management is sufficiently strong not to warrant hiring one in haste - umm...? over 6 months ago and counting).
This is also a company that is senstive to poor global economic conditions and yet Avesco has achieved outstanding growth in some of the most hostile conditions in the past 100 years. How will they fare when world economic growth eventually gathers speed? Very well I expect.
I can't see any reasons to part with a single share.
GCER have a 267p price target which I believe still underestimates the potential value to be unlocked here.
Anyway, as ever, interesting times ahead, and no advice intended or given.
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