Sunday, 4 May 2014

Ignore market conditions and take the long term view

Friday brought further good news for my holding in Trakm8 with the announcement it had been appointed the sole telematics supplier of self-install devices to Direct Line Group for the recently launched Direct Line DrivePlus Plug-in device. It was confirmation of the significant hardware order Trakm8 announced on 13 January 2014.

John Watkins, Executive Chairman of Trakm8 commented:
"This is a key milestone for Trakm8, as Direct Line Group launches a step-change in telematics for UK consumers. This proposition accelerates the awareness of telematics as an effective tool to improve driving skills and reduce fuel costs. We look forward to building on this relationship further as consumers adopt the Plug-in device."

Trakm8 continues to make excellent progress, and boasts a high percentage of recurring revenues which provide the financial stability from which the company can accelerate its growth.

The recent April trading statement was also very encouraging. The share price rose by 9% on Friday and the current market cap. is around £21m:-

http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/trading-statement-trakm8.html

Avanti Communications also released news of a contract win on Friday with Avonline Broadband. This is a multi-million dollar contract extension, and follows on from a very encouraging rate of contract wins that the company has announced in recent months.

Whilst this is a speculative holding for me, the recent spate of newsflow fills me with cautious optimism, and I continue to hold the shares.

On a separate note, those of you who regularly read my blog will recognise that I am a long term holder of shares, and have very little interest in the general direction of the main indices, I am only ever interested in individual companies and whether or not they look cheap and are worthy of consideration. Buffet's recent letter to Berkshire's shareholder's is well worth reading if you haven't already:-

http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/buffets-letter-to-shareholders.html

Particularly this line:-

"Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time".

Consider this: in around 2002, all seemed lost in a group called Ashtead, and I distinctly remember watching the share price fall to 1.5p, and considered having a punt. However, I didn't, but did buy some later at 15p when the shares had already 10 bagged from this low point. I later sold the shares for a modest profit. Shares in Ashtead currently stand at £8.73. A £1000 investment at 1.5p would currently be worth £582,000, and at 15p £58,200. Not a bad return over 12 years I'd suggest. Financial crisis!! Who cares if you're a reasonable stock picker with a long term view?








BOOM.....!!! One Delta rises more than 100% on Audioboo reversal

Unexpectedly, Friday turned out to be an eventful day for three of my current holdings.

Firstly, on Thursday, One Delta released news that the acquisition through a reverse takeover of Audioboo had been agreed subject to shareholder approval with the new company to be rebranded as Audioboom. Whilst I don't hold shares in One Delta, I indirectly have a proportionate 20% stake in the company through holding shares in UBC Media. One Delta's shares returned to the market on Friday after a period of suspension, and soared over 100% in a day. It's highly speculative of course since the company is not set to make any meaningful revenues in 2014 whilst it concentrates its efforts in rapidly growing the volume of content, investing in technology, increasing the number of registered users, listens-per-user and content partners. At the current share price of 3.625p, the market cap. of the enlarged group would stand at just under £17m which clearly can't be justified on fundamentals, but compared with the multi-billion dollar valuations of other successful social networking sites, it could  turn out to be grossly undervalued (Twitter is currently valued at around $22billion).

This is great news for UBC Media holders, Simon Cole, CEO of UBC Media, will become a Non-Executive Director of Audioboom, and UBC will be its largest shareholder with around 20% (including warrants), and bodes well for their own reverse takeover of 7Digital.

7digital have grown revenues 289% over the past five years, and details of the reverse takeover are expected in May (I anticipate that this could be as early as next week) at which time UBC Media shares will return from suspension. It appears that investor appetite for these types of companies remains high, and I expect 7Digital's listing to be very favourably received by the market. Of course there are no guarantees, and we shall just have to wait and see, but I do like the potential synergies that exist between 7Digital, UBC Media and Audioboom.

N.B. Previous blog on UBC Media :-
http://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/ubc-media-trakm8-and-synety.html




Wednesday, 23 April 2014

Biome Technologies - Worth a punt?

One of today's big risers is a company called Biome Technologies following a positive trading update. I didn't recognise the name at first, but when I glanced at the news I noticed that part of the company is Stanelco. I do remember Stanelco, I seem to remember that they were developing some packaging technology some years ago, but were continually making losses. A real jam tomorrow company. I did follow their fortunes for a while, but lost interest. Is Biome Stanelco in disguise or was it acquired? Perhaps someone can help out here?

Anyway, Biome have released a positive trading update today, and the share price has risen accordingly. In fact by 12% whilst I am writing this article.

The company appears to comprise of two divisions:- A 'Bioplastics Division' and  'Stanelco RF Technologies Division'. In today's first quarter update both divisions are trading well ahead of the same period last year with Bioplastics recording revenues of  £0.5m (Q1 2013: £0.2m) and Stanelco revenues of £0.6m (Q1 2013: £0.2m). The cash burn during the period is just £0.1m, 'reflecting increased activity, receipt of deposits for the RF Technologies division and working capital movements.' A confident outlook has been expressed for the year as a whole based upon increasing volumes of Biome's materials being procured in the period for use in the US single-serve coffee market amongst other applications, and Stanelco's order book growing in an encouraging manner with 2014 orders now in excess of the revenues achieved in 2013. Activity has now commenced on the recently announced GBP1.5m contract to supply advanced analytical equipment to a customer in a regulated industry.

Looking at last year's results and today's trading statement, revenues are increasing from a very low base and profitability looks some way off. Cash burn in 2013 was significant.  However, if they can continue to control the cash burn whilst accelerating sales then this could be an interesting punt.

Tangible assets come in at £4.4m with no debt, against a market cap. of approx. £4m after today's share price rise. Not one where I'll be chasing up the share price, and I'd definitely need to do more research, but interesting nevertheless.