Monday, 2 November 2015

Just two quick updates to start the day. Firstly, I mentioned Avanti Communications yesterday and today they have announced a significant contract win with Telkom SA.

http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2015/article/69131621

Two hugely important bits for me are:-

"This multi-year commitment is expected to make a significant contribution to filling HYLAS 2 and HYLAS 4 South African capacity in a market that is developing well for Avanti."

"Avanti has now won contracts with the incumbent national telecoms companies in all of its core African markets, in-line with its announced strategy."

Avanti has been a target of shorting campaigns in the past, but most recently they have shown significant progress and appear to be answering their critics. This contract provides further confirmation that the business is now gaining momentum. I am becoming more confident that they have turned the corner towards achieving their stated goals.

News indirectly from another of my holdings this morning. Direct Line Insurance have released their third quarter trading update this morning and it reads well for Trakm8's supply of telematics devices:-

"The Group continues to build on its current strong market positions by identifying and investing in market developments that it believes can contribute to future growth. In particular, Motor has continued to grow its telematics-based insurance, with a 76% increase during 2015 to 67,000 in-force policies."

I'll update the blog later in the day.

Bought back into Biome Technologies today, not a huge stake, but enough to keep me interested. Biome is a company I held shares in earlier this year when I bought at prices around the 80p mark. Within a few months the SP had improved significantly. The half-year results however didn't impress, and I took a 75% profit.

The trading statement today has tempted back in though. It looks encouraging, and they look set to beat market expectations for the full year. Total group revenues in the third quarter were up 169% at £1.3m and group revenues for the nine month period are 18% ahead of last year at £3.3m.

Both the bioplastics and radio frequency technology businesses are doing well. Order visibility for both divisions is looking good for the rest of this year and into 2016. Significantly the group reported a small EBITDA profit in the third quarter, and cash balances appear to be stabilising. They have £1.7m in cash on the balance sheet just £0.1m less than 30th June this year. If you strip out intangibles, even after today's share price rise, the market cap. is not far above NTAV. The current market cap. is around £3.4m whilst NTAV is £2.7m. If you include intangibles then the market cap. is below NAV (£4m). At the interims gross margins had improved from 35% to 39%.

Biome has been a serial disappointer in the past and understandably early investors are sceptical. The shares are highly illiquid, and the spread is off-putting.  However, Biome may well have reached an inflexion point in their development, management believe so with Paul Mines saying the following:-

"Revenue generation is strong in both divisions and, coupling this with the achievement of a small group EBITDA profit in the quarter, we are increasingly confident that 2015 will become a very significant milestone in Biome's development."
For the early risers, LPA Group has got out the blocks quite quickly this morning with an encouraging sounding trading update. I don't really know much about this company apart from the cursory glance I had this morning. It appears they had warned on profits at the half year but have since turned things around and will now be ahead of revised expectations. Medium term prospects look good. The shares don't look particularly cheap to me based on a p/e basis, but the TNAV looks ok. Cash at the half way stage was minimal. Might be one to research further? Shares are up around 20% as I type.

Aeorema which is one of my holdings that I mentioned yesterday has ticked up a little this morning. Goes ex-dividend on Thursday. Very healthy yield.

Avanti Communications which is also one of my investments, albeit speculative has also ticked up a little this morning. It's not been a great investment yet (share price wise), but I am encouraged by their progress and the shares have recently seen good upward momentum.

I shall update the diary as the day progresses with anything of note or that catches my eye.

Had a better look at LPA Group's half-yearly report. It looks plausible that the cash outflow at the half-way stage was a temporary blip. Given the trading statement this morning, and their confidence in maintaining the interim dividend, I suspect that they will return to cash flow positive by year end. Shares are up 30% now and it's certainly an interesting micro-cap. EPS for end of September was predicted to be 1.1p rising to 4.2p next year. Next year's p/e ratio stands at 20 after this mornings rise and the company pays a modest dividend. Could turn out to be a GARP stock, but the price would have to retreat from here to capture my interest.

Sunday, 1 November 2015

For a variety of reasons I'm going to be limiting  any comments I make about my investing to this blog from here on in. Also, I'm going to try and use a diary style approach. As ever, the blog is just my thoughts and views about stocks I own or indeed don't own, and it goes without saying that I'm not offering advice to others.

Friday proved an interesting day for one of my more recent investments. The share price of Audioboom rose a near 30% on Friday. A brief comment in the weekend newspapers suggest that bid rumours are circulating. We shall see. Audioboom has been one of those companies that I've blown a bit hot and cold with in the past, but a recent interview with Rob Proctor (Audioboom's CEO) tempted me to take a stake in the company at prices around 4p. On current fundamentals the market cap. looks a little heady, but hey this is the world of social media. A look at recent deals will tell you that in comparison to the market cap. of some, Audioboom potentially looks many times undervalued. If bid rumours are true then this could get very exciting. For me, I 'm certainly going to be holding on tightly.

Returning to Rob Proctor's interview it would appear that revenues will increase exponentially from here. From memory last reported revenues were a laughable £50,000. It's not so funny now though. He has suggested revenues in October and November will amount to £450,000 - £500,000. This apparently is just the tip of the iceberg. His reasoning is more than plausible since the revenues are dependant on listens and not registered users. Listens are certainly climbing massively with the Cumulus deal and there is far more to come. If Audioboom decide to go it alone then they will need to raise more cash to increase their workforce, so putting myself in Rob Proctor's place, if a bid comes at a very significant premium to Friday's closing price (and I'm talking a big multiple of that price) I'd take it. Interesting days, weeks and months ahead. He might wait a little while longer I suppose because the more he shows revenues escalating, the more chance of an even higher price for the company. Speculative yes, but potentially exciting and rewarding.

Trakm8, a long term holding of mine, announced a major North American contract this week. The share price hit new highs. This company will remain a core holding for me for some time to come, Trakm8's revenues have largely been UK generated to this juncture, more traction overseas sounds very attractive. For traders the chart has hit another breakout point.

A more recent investment is in a company called Aeorema. This is a tiny company in the events sector. However, it's profitable with no debt and paying a great dividend (around 8% at Friday's closing price). The shares go ex-dividend next week on 5th November.

Recent results showed a fall in profits and the share price hasn't moved much yet. However, the results were better than they had previously flagged in a trading statement and I am hoping the profit dip was a blip in their growth trajectory. Interestingly the FCF was significantly better than last year's. I'm hoping for long term capital growth and income from this tiddler. Any price weakness may tempt me to top up further.