The Oracle

I upset an anonymous poster on the ADVFN (AVN bulletin board) today by posting a link to this blog. The exchange of views runs from post 4762 to 4791 on the link below:-
http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=22947823&from=4778
Have a quick read if you fancy a giggle.

Just for the record I'm not trying to pass myself off as some Warren Buffett like oracle or a minor celebrity. I just like sharing my thoughts in a blog which people can read or ignore as they like. I've had over 10 years experience now as a Private Investor, and I've posted on ADVFN for many of those years. This is something just a little bit different. I did promise myself when I started stock picking that if I couldn't outperform the main market indices consistenly then I'd give up and buy a tracker fund. Fortunately (so far) I have managed to do just that. Of course things could change, and I do make errors from time to time.
Anyway the blog enables any readers to make their own mind up over time and I've always used the same username (Michaelmouse) on ADVFN, so I do already have a recorded history of investing.

I see Premier Oil's results were out today, I haven't really read them, but the headlines look good and the SP increased by 4%. I bought shares in Premier Oil back in 2001/2002 for 26p (after consolidation 260p) and since then they have nearly 10 bagged. Unfortunately I sold them some considerable time ago for a 50% profit. Well done to those investors who have held on! The reason I sold was that just like Avanti I also find it difficult to value oil and mining companies, particularly when they are at an early stage of development. Kenmare Resources has been the only mining company that I have invested in, at about the same time as Premier Oil. I managed to make a 250% profit in Kenmare (buying around 16p and selling in the mid 50s), and was lucky enough to sell just before the financial crisis got into full swing and the shares fell back to around 7p. Probably should have bought them again, since the last time I looked the SP had climbed back up to the high 30s.

I am sure that both Premier and Kenmare will continue to prosper.

Whilst clearly there are great opportunities and fortunes to be made in oil and mining companies, I don't think I'll be tempted back, experience has told me to stick with what I know and feel comfortable valuing. Chiefly those companies with easy to understand balance sheets and where I can clearly identify a margin of safety.

Now I'm going to post the link on the PMO and KMR bulletin boards. It is nice to know that some investors read the blog, but others can't read it if they don't know it exists.

Wish me luck and I hope I don't upset too many people :).