For a variety of reasons I'm going to be limiting any comments I make about my investing to this blog from here on in. Also, I'm going to try and use a diary style approach. As ever, the blog is just my thoughts and views about stocks I own or indeed don't own, and it goes without saying that I'm not offering advice to others.
Friday proved an interesting day for one of my more recent investments. The share price of Audioboom rose a near 30% on Friday. A brief comment in the weekend newspapers suggest that bid rumours are circulating. We shall see. Audioboom has been one of those companies that I've blown a bit hot and cold with in the past, but a recent interview with Rob Proctor (Audioboom's CEO) tempted me to take a stake in the company at prices around 4p. On current fundamentals the market cap. looks a little heady, but hey this is the world of social media. A look at recent deals will tell you that in comparison to the market cap. of some, Audioboom potentially looks many times undervalued. If bid rumours are true then this could get very exciting. For me, I 'm certainly going to be holding on tightly.
Returning to Rob Proctor's interview it would appear that revenues will increase exponentially from here. From memory last reported revenues were a laughable £50,000. It's not so funny now though. He has suggested revenues in October and November will amount to £450,000 - £500,000. This apparently is just the tip of the iceberg. His reasoning is more than plausible since the revenues are dependant on listens and not registered users. Listens are certainly climbing massively with the Cumulus deal and there is far more to come. If Audioboom decide to go it alone then they will need to raise more cash to increase their workforce, so putting myself in Rob Proctor's place, if a bid comes at a very significant premium to Friday's closing price (and I'm talking a big multiple of that price) I'd take it. Interesting days, weeks and months ahead. He might wait a little while longer I suppose because the more he shows revenues escalating, the more chance of an even higher price for the company. Speculative yes, but potentially exciting and rewarding.
Trakm8, a long term holding of mine, announced a major North American contract this week. The share price hit new highs. This company will remain a core holding for me for some time to come, Trakm8's revenues have largely been UK generated to this juncture, more traction overseas sounds very attractive. For traders the chart has hit another breakout point.
A more recent investment is in a company called Aeorema. This is a tiny company in the events sector. However, it's profitable with no debt and paying a great dividend (around 8% at Friday's closing price). The shares go ex-dividend next week on 5th November.
Recent results showed a fall in profits and the share price hasn't moved much yet. However, the results were better than they had previously flagged in a trading statement and I am hoping the profit dip was a blip in their growth trajectory. Interestingly the FCF was significantly better than last year's. I'm hoping for long term capital growth and income from this tiddler. Any price weakness may tempt me to top up further.
Sunday, 1 November 2015
Friday, 25 September 2015
Nobody is ever going to get rich by buying into IPOs
In Wednesday's blog, I wrote the following:-
"I would argue that nobody is ever going to get rich by buying into IPOs"
Today a company called Bagir Group, which recently listed on London's Aim market, provided the perfect illustration as to why I avoid IPO's like the plague.
Bagir Group has barely been listed for more than a year. On the first day of dealings the share price stood at over 60p, but quickly lost value. After the release of today's interim results the share price has plunged even further, and currently languishes at 3.75p.
So what exactly has caused today's plunge? In short, losses of over $3m coupled with this trading statement:-
"The Company has made good progress in developing revenues to replace its previous largest customer during the six months to 30 June 2015. However, as noted above, the Company expects the second half of the year to be more difficult than the first half due to competitive pressures and the deferral of sales planned for 2015 into 2016. As a result, the Company expects trading for the second half of the current financial year to be significantly worse than the first half. "
Now using ADVFN's figures the group has a current market cap. of £1.9m. The company describes itself as a designer, creator and provider of innovative formalwear tailoring with it's Head Office based in Israel.
Last reported revenues came in at £97.0m and so ultimately with a £1.9m market cap. it may turn out to be bargain of the century from these levels, and some investors may wish to stick it on their monitors and carry out some further investigation into the company's fundamentals.
Personally, if the recent listing wasn't enough to put me off in the first place then the fact that it's Head Office is overseas certainly would.
I love seeking out and buying interesting micro-cap companies listed on Aim that look good value, but overseas based recent IPO's I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.
Actually, if you had shorted each and every foreign based IPO that listed on Aim you would have made an absolute fortune.
As an aside I often hear investors heavily criticising the Aim market almost as if it's rotten to the core. Of course, it's no such thing. Like any other market there are good, bad and indifferent companies, and if you look hard enough you can find some absolute gems. However, you do have to wonder how on earth so much rubbish appears to have made it onto the market?
"I would argue that nobody is ever going to get rich by buying into IPOs"
Today a company called Bagir Group, which recently listed on London's Aim market, provided the perfect illustration as to why I avoid IPO's like the plague.
Bagir Group has barely been listed for more than a year. On the first day of dealings the share price stood at over 60p, but quickly lost value. After the release of today's interim results the share price has plunged even further, and currently languishes at 3.75p.
So what exactly has caused today's plunge? In short, losses of over $3m coupled with this trading statement:-
"The Company has made good progress in developing revenues to replace its previous largest customer during the six months to 30 June 2015. However, as noted above, the Company expects the second half of the year to be more difficult than the first half due to competitive pressures and the deferral of sales planned for 2015 into 2016. As a result, the Company expects trading for the second half of the current financial year to be significantly worse than the first half. "
Now using ADVFN's figures the group has a current market cap. of £1.9m. The company describes itself as a designer, creator and provider of innovative formalwear tailoring with it's Head Office based in Israel.
Last reported revenues came in at £97.0m and so ultimately with a £1.9m market cap. it may turn out to be bargain of the century from these levels, and some investors may wish to stick it on their monitors and carry out some further investigation into the company's fundamentals.
Personally, if the recent listing wasn't enough to put me off in the first place then the fact that it's Head Office is overseas certainly would.
I love seeking out and buying interesting micro-cap companies listed on Aim that look good value, but overseas based recent IPO's I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.
Actually, if you had shorted each and every foreign based IPO that listed on Aim you would have made an absolute fortune.
As an aside I often hear investors heavily criticising the Aim market almost as if it's rotten to the core. Of course, it's no such thing. Like any other market there are good, bad and indifferent companies, and if you look hard enough you can find some absolute gems. However, you do have to wonder how on earth so much rubbish appears to have made it onto the market?
Thursday, 24 September 2015
Parsortix system impressing the medical world
I have written several blogs in the past about my investment in a company called Angle. This was a speculative investment that I made in 2012 when the share price had fallen back to around 26p-27p from memory. Certainly, this investment is paying off so far with the current share price around 76p. I am hopeful that the share price will continue to rise sharply from this point, particularly after today's news:-
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2015/article/68629375
To summarise, this is a further example of the Parsortix system's far superior performance to the existing competition in providing a liquid biopsy for personalised
medicine in prostate cancer.
Andrew Newland says, "This is the first peer-reviewed publication in a scientific journal in relation to the clinical use of ANGLE's Parsortix system. It adds to the growing body of published evidence of the system's performance as a liquid biopsy in a range of cancers including ovarian, prostate and breast cancers."
As the results of each independent study are released, I am getting more and more confident about my investment here. What particularly strikes me is the excitement from the medical community who specialise in the treatment of a number of cancers.
These comments from a news release in April this year clearly demonstrate the medical community's enthusiasm:-
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2015/article/66496043
"Dr Eva Obermayr, Principal Investigator at the Medical University of Vienna, commented:
"The Parsortix technology contributes to the unprecedented specificity and sensitivity of the overall approach, by providing a high purity CTC sample. Parsortix is a label-free technology, and as such may become the gold standard for ovarian cancer diagnosis. By combining the Parsortix technology with qPCR analysis, we achieved an unprecedented high detection rate of cancer, even in early stage patients, where conventional diagnostic methods failed."
Professor Robert Zeillinger, Head of the Molecular Oncology Group at the Medical University of Vienna, commented:
"It is now evident that the Parsortix system has wide application not just in ovarian cancer but in breast cancer and other gynaecological cancers as well. We are delighted to be working with ANGLE to bring this new capability to our patients as soon as possible."
A more extensive study into Parsortix's system is about to get underway with Ovarian cancer patients, and should the results be repeated then it opens up the clinical market in ovarian cancer with sales potential for the Parsortix system in Europe and the United States in excess of £300 million per annum. The whole market opportunity for all cancers is estimated to be worth in excess of £8bn.
Angle is currently valued at around £45m. Of course, it is almost impossible to value the company at this stage, but with luck and continued good progress then the company is potentially worth many multiples of this value if it can achieve both research and clinical sales in the future.
Funding is in place for the medium term.
My feeling is that given the increasingly positive results coming through from key opinion leaders, Angle will be snapped up by a predator in the not too distant future at a significant premium to it's current market cap.
I continue to hold the shares with increasing confidence.
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2015/article/68629375
To summarise, this is a further example of the Parsortix system's far superior performance to the existing competition in providing a liquid biopsy for personalised
medicine in prostate cancer. Andrew Newland says, "This is the first peer-reviewed publication in a scientific journal in relation to the clinical use of ANGLE's Parsortix system. It adds to the growing body of published evidence of the system's performance as a liquid biopsy in a range of cancers including ovarian, prostate and breast cancers."
As the results of each independent study are released, I am getting more and more confident about my investment here. What particularly strikes me is the excitement from the medical community who specialise in the treatment of a number of cancers.
These comments from a news release in April this year clearly demonstrate the medical community's enthusiasm:-
http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2015/article/66496043
"Dr Eva Obermayr, Principal Investigator at the Medical University of Vienna, commented:
"The Parsortix technology
contributes to the unprecedented specificity and sensitivity of the overall approach, by providing a high purity CTC sample. Parsortix is a label-free technology, and as such may become the gold standard for ovarian cancer diagnosis. By combining the Parsortix technology with qPCR analysis, we achieved an unprecedented high detection rate of cancer, even in early stage patients, where conventional diagnostic methods failed."Professor Robert Zeillinger, Head of the Molecular Oncology Group at the Medical University of Vienna, commented:
"It is now evident that the Parsortix system has wide application not just in ovarian cancer but in breast cancer and other gynaecological cancers as well. We are delighted to be working with ANGLE to bring this new capability to our patients as soon as possible."
A more extensive study into Parsortix's system is about to get underway with Ovarian cancer patients, and should the results be repeated then it opens up the clinical market in ovarian cancer with sales
potential for the Parsortix system in Europe and the United States in excess of £300 million per annum. The whole market opportunity for all cancers is estimated to be worth in excess of £8bn.Angle is currently valued at around £45m. Of course, it is almost impossible to value the company at this stage, but with luck and continued good progress then the company is potentially worth many multiples of this value if it can achieve both research and clinical sales in the future.
Funding is in place for the medium term.
My feeling is that given the increasingly positive results coming through from key opinion leaders, Angle will be snapped up by a predator in the not too distant future at a significant premium to it's current market cap.
I continue to hold the shares with increasing confidence.
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